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Sunday, January 20, 2013

Conditions Change In a Week

Take this with a grain of salt; the weather pattern will change in about a week from today (1/27). At that time conditions will ripen for a series of storms to come into our area. Here is a look at the first storm, which right now appears to be the best chance for some precipitation. The two images reflect about 12 hours of precip that should be coming our way next weekend.




The next chart shows why I am confident this storm will make it down to our area. You can see quite clearly that the storm door will open. This too is a chart for the 27th:


So conditions will be favorable next weekend. However I want to qualify this. Right now I do not see a major storm cycle. In fact, I do not see a major storm cycle at any time in the next 2-3 weeks, at least. The storms are not very big and our ridge of high pressure does appear to be in a favorable blocking pattern for the the western 2/3 of the USA for the 2-3 weeks, with the exception of this Sunday. Another qualifier; It does appear the storms will start to grow in size for the first week in February, so the outlook can change. The bad news is that the EC long range see's only this storm next weekend for the next 30 days, which means the storm door could get slammed shut quickly.

There is still plenty of snow, and will be for the remainder of the 2013 ski season. Conditions are excellent on the mountain ... just a little boring. Therefore, think snow and if the pattern begins to change, I will let you know.

Hockey Planner
As high pressure holds on for the week, strong inversions should persist. That should provide excellent morning skating conditions, while afternoon conditions should be fair. As the sun increases in afternoon intensity, it should melt the top layer of ice. That top layer will freeze overnight and provide a freshly covered surface each morning ... natures Zamboni. I do not see this pattern changing any time in the 2-4 weeks with the exception of Sunday's storm, which should bring warmer weather on the front end and much cooler temps by the following Monday with inversions to follow. Right now the better ice conditions will be in the valley as opposed to the mountains.

Stay Tuned ...

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