First El Nino Storm, Turbulent November in the Cards

A smallish storm sitting off the coast of Oregon is having an effect on our weather and will continue to do so. Tomorrow ushers in some moisture that should be snow in the upper elevations. The storm will weaken as it moves inland and therefore the amount of moisture will be limited. Here is a look at the forecast for very early tomorrow morning:

This storm will bring a healthy amount of moisture to the Northern California coast, but lacks the lift to make it far into the Sierra with any kind of significant moisture content. 6-12 inches are possible on the western crest with up to 6 inches in the Carson range, above 8,500 feet. If the models get this wrong, we could see even more, so keep your fingers crossed.

Looking ahead, the westerlies start to show up around the 1st or 2nd of the month. A storm, straight from the west, will have an impact on Central California and our area. Here is a look at the forecast for November 2nd:

As with most storms from the south and west, this will be a much warmer storm. Hard to say at this time but this storm could be packing a much better moisture punch. However, snow levels will be as high as 9,000 feet.

Fantasy Forecast
At this point, November looks good for all of Tahoe. The storm cycle should really pick up around the first week of November and keep going for at least a few weeks. The chart I am about to show you illustrates total liquid precipitation between the 2nd and 22nd of November.

Most of the Tahoe area is in the 10+ inch range. While the Carson Range looks to be in the 6-10 inch range. Folks, if this holds true we could be talking about a very early start to the ski season with excellent conditions before Thanksgiving.

Remember, this is the fantasy forecast, which I know most of you like to see and understand the models are picking up on a change and are guessing that change will result in a very stormy November.

This could and should be a very different year. I have always said the phrase "Climate Change" is redundant.

Stay Tuned ...