I apologize for lateness of this post, however I have been out of town and only returned yesterday. Looking at the latest model runs, I am most pleased by the amount of moisture the current storm appears to be tapping into, especially when it gets here.
Here is a look a the latest run of the EC, for tomorrow:
As this storm approaches, it will pick up moisture from the south. The model runs appear to be leaning toward the possibility of even a larger precipitation event. Also, this storm has plenty of spillover which bodes well for both the Carson Range and the leeward valleys from Reno through Carson.
Here is a look at the current precip forecast, remember the models have been increasing moisture with each run, so our confidence is pretty high with this one:
Not the most impressive storm ever, but certainly much better than what was being forecast 10 days ago.
As far as snow levels, get used to this; this is a warm storm pulling moisture from the south. Snow levels will start around 9,000 feet and come down to around 5,000 feet by the end of the storm. I think it is a safe bet that Mt. Rose will pick up 18+ inches of snow by the time this thing is over on Tuesday.
Following this storm another drops down from the north and east (slider) and should produce more precip, especially for the Carson Range. How much is very difficult to tell, but my best guess now is an additional 6 inches for Mt. Rose.
Finally, here is what the 30 day is saying in the way of moisture. Remember, my last post was very disappointing but our confidence was very low. I am confident that this will be the minimum amount we see in the next 30 days:
We are looking at possible precip events on the 7th, 12th and 18th of November. But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. Remember, the long term is pretty good at pointing out weather patterns. However, it is very difficult to get the timing right. Here is a look at the week of the 15-22 of November. Again, the long term is seeing something that it believes will increase the storms for our area.
I am pretty confident, that we could see good conditions prior to Thanksgiving, keep your fingers crossed.
Stay Tuned ...