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Monday, May 2, 2016

Very Wet Week Ahead

The Tahoe area and Leeward Valleys of Northern Nevada are in for a very rainy couple of weeks, at least. Several factors are involved, including off short troughs in the Pacific NW and inland troughs both southeast and northeast of us. Add a blocking ridge and we are going to see moisture coming from all directions.

Our top researcher, Paul H, had this to say about what to expect long term:

The wet pattern appears to continue till at least May 11 and is now indeed looking to be an interesting end to this interesting Super El Nino. I want to say I see a break in the Sierras from this wet cool weather but I'm not and it must be similar to what the dark ages were like in Europe- the summer solstice with frost and sleat. To be honest I believe the "sleep of the sun" (solar minimum) is playing a role in all this from the severe weird drought to extremely warm oceans to now this bizarre cool wet pattern I'm seeing continue into June. The Law of Thermodynamics and heat distribution mechanisms to find a quasi equilibrium within our atmosphere is all weather really is and the earth is proving to be going through a very strange time balancing herself out. Both our recently altered atmosphere to very high CO2 levels- from burning fossil fuels- and the exceptionally quiet sun phase seems to be having a direct influence on the polar vortices and the North Atlantic Oscillation swinging back and forth from strong positive to strong negative thus impacting the jet stream dynamics and North Pacific High. Moreover the physical response from our ozone layer (stratosphere) receiving low levels of solar radiation and our earths unsettled magnetic field due to large amounts of ice melting off the Arctic and Greenland is influentially affecting these air masses circulating within the westerlies in both hemispheres along with the equatorial Inter tropical convergence zones cloud and thunderstorm development or CPN (cloud producing nuclei or equatorial Rossby waves). Bottom line weird ass weather for the next long while in California!!
Cheers to Cool Wet May

Expect snow levels in the 8,000 - 9,000 foot range. They could dip lower as a cold front approaches from the north on Thursday. As Paul has explained here, expect a very stormy May with 2-3 day breaks between stormy weather.

Normally we begin to shut it down this time of year, but we will keep going for as long as the weather warrants.

Stay Tuned ...

10 comments:

  1. "sleep of the sun" ?

    Paul H. You are Correct !

    "very high CO2 levels- from burning fossil fuels" ?

    Paul H, You are Incorrect !

    As since you did mention the Dark Ages, Co2 levels were considerably high then today and during the 1st Century AD Co2 levels were much higher then today !!

    And fossil fuels have nothing to do with Co2 levels, that is a lie, no offense !

    Strange El Nino though, much more of a South to North flow then the normal West to East flow, and that is different not to say that any cold air flows in May and/or June really abnormal !

    Sun hibernation is relatively new and it is the Sun that controls the Earths climate, Mankind never has and Mankind never will !

    Now El Nino, it isn't over, don't leave us out (California, SoCal to be more exact), bring it on, as much as you can...

    We need it !

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  2. Thanks for the comment Rick. I have always been perplexed as to why if this CO2, Man Made Global Warming is real, why there is so much deception to prove it. I have always taken the stance that the Creator of all things Cosmology controls the climate ... I think Paul shares that view, but I will let him comment for himself. Being the head of TWB, I like to keep my comments as neutral as possible.

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  3. Wasn't the desert SW and california much cooler and wetter due low sunspots and the little ice age.

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  4. Hi Rick,

    1.) It seems impossible that a gallon of gasoline, which weighs about 6.3 pounds, could produce 20 pounds of carbon dioxide (CO2) when burned. However, most of the weight of the CO2 doesn't come from the gasoline itself, but the oxygen in the air.

    When gasoline burns, the carbon and hydrogen separate. The hydrogen combines with oxygen to form water (H2O), and carbon combines with oxygen to form carbon dioxide (CO2).

    CO2 molecule with one carbon atom (atomic weight 12) and two oxygen atoms (atomic weight of 16 each)A carbon atom has a weight of 12, and each oxygen atom has a weight of 16, giving each single molecule of CO2 an atomic weight of 44 (12 from carbon and 32 from oxygen).

    Therefore, to calculate the amount of CO2 produced from a gallon of gasoline, the weight of the carbon in the gasoline is multiplied by 44/12 or 3.7.

    Since gasoline is about 87% carbon and 13% hydrogen by weight, the carbon in a gallon of gasoline weighs 5.5 pounds (6.3 lbs. x .87).

    We can then multiply the weight of the carbon (5.5 pounds) by 3.7, which equals 20 pounds of CO2!

    Paul H



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  5. rick reply continued........

    I would like to talk about El Niño, that has made significant headlines in the media. El Niño "The Boy", which is an unusual warming of Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, is NOT basin wide through the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In fact close observation shows there is NO comparison to the 1997/98 super El Niño, as this particular event is *Central-to-West-based and NOT basin wide or East-based. This means the warming of SST anomalies over the Pacific is concentrated from the International Dateline, points east to the *Central / North American continent.
    A *Central-to-West-based El Niño will in-fact encourage an energized sub-tropical jet-stream but ridging (above normal heights) over western North America due to the area of above normal SST's concentrated through the eastern Pacific, that will tend to encourage troughing (below normal heights) over eastern North America.
    -New England NOA

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  6. Rick reply cont..

    What is the foundation of the 2015/16 Winter season?
    1. Solar Minimum / High Latitude Blocking - it's very important to consider that we are now entering a solar minimum following the 9-11 year sunspot cycle. The Sun has been averaging 20 daily events or less (in-terms of sunspot activity on the solar disk) since November 7, 2014, and is currently at 15 daily events as of November 20, 2015. Through the majority of absent New England Winter's of the 1990's, the Sun was averaging 40-100 daily events, throwing back a moderate to high frequency of ultraviolet (UV) rays on-the-Earth. The higher frequency of ultraviolet (UV) rays acts to deplete ozone and in-return allows for pronounced cooling of the pole's stratosphere, with the Polar Vortex (PV) almost never splitting to influence middle latitudes of-the-Earth. Strongly taking into consideration current solar activity, lends hand to the highly cyclical 9-11 year (Schwabe) sunspot cycle, that we are indeed entering a solar minimum. The emerging sleep of-the-Sun will soon encourage pronounced warming of the pole's stratosphere due to increased ozone, * as this warming pushes down through the troposphere and eventual stratosphere, the PV will in-turn react and SPLIT, the pole will moderate. As the split PV drops south in-latitude, a reaction-to-action, ejecting the Arctic Oscillation (AO) / North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) into a pronounced negative phase. This will be the said driver of the 500-millibar Height Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere during the coming 2015/16 Winter season, NOT El Niño.
    New England NAO-

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  7. Rick reply cont...

    3.)The 2014/15 season is-the-true beginning of-a-cycle... supporting the RETURN OF classic OLD-FASHIONED-WINTER's in NEW ENGLAND! On January 14, 2015, I had posted that all-the-elements would (have the-potential-to) come together... with the return of the old fashioned New England winter, as experienced through most-of-the 1950's, 1960's, & 70's. As we realized the "cold", but had yet to observe a true snowstorm (Nor'Easter). Since-that-post, Boston has recorded it's snowiest 7-day period in-history (during late January 2015), and Hartford, CT. is presently averaging around 8-10°F below normal for the month-of-February. While there are various forms of long range weather guidance, such as NOAA's CFS forecast model... nature itself has already provided us with strong clues. These clues rest with understanding of-the-Sun's 9-11 year sunspot cycle, known as the Schwabe Cycle, which averages to be exactly 10.66 years. Sunspots are temporary dark spots located on the photosphere of-the-Sun, that significantly reduces the temperature within the darkened spot, in-contrast to the outer surrounding of the solar disk. However, the influences go-far-beyond the solar disk through the release of ultraviolet (UV) rays. UV rays (due to highly active "charged" sunspots) fall back on-the-Earth, which has a direct poleward effect. The higher frequency of UV rays acts to "cool" the pole's stratosphere, as the Polar Vortex (PV) remains over-the-Arctic... thus NOT SPLITTING, dropping south, to influence middle latitudes of-the-Earth. During the period of a Solar Maximum, is when this activity peaks... the Winter of 2011/12 was a Solar Maximum. However, we are now heading toward a Solar Minimum (the five-year-period between a solar maximum), which allows for a reverse effect... due to virtually no sunspot activity on the solar disk. In return, the pole's stratosphere "warms", encouraging "Blocking High Pressure" in northern latitudes as the Polar Vortex (PV) SPLITS, becoming significantly displaced from the pole as it drops south in-latitude (*has occurred during this 2014/15 Winter season). Of extreme interest, the sun will truly enter a Solar Minimum around the 2015/16 Winter season, and have strong probability to-be-deep within a solar minimum during the 2016/17, 2017/18, 2018/19, 2019/20, & 2020/21 Winter seasons... following this highly cyclical cycle!
    -New England NAO

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  8. rick reply cont...

    4.) Here is example of how higher CO2 levels are influencing our climate system just recently.

    On April 18, 2016 our planet experienced the hottest April day on record in Seattle, Washington at an astounding 89 degrees and Houston Texas recorded the wettest day for that same exact date (April 18, 2016) with a staggering 9.92 inches of rain! The old record was 85 degrees on April 30, 1976 (where you would expect at very end of the month) in Seattle, and 8.16 inches in Houston on April 18 ,1976.


    I hope this helps clarify things a bit. This is extremely involved science and we are all learning alot as these pattern play out. My point in the email was not that we are entering a mini ice age or anything but just that the planet and our solar system is going through some very interesting times right now and the atmospheric patterns and air masses on earth are going to behave spatially and physically in strange ways for possibly a while!
    Paul Huntington

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  9. Friends, the weather sure has gone mad! By working on, I was in the Ukraine. Today, 26 days of October, in the yard autumn, while in Ukraine it is snowing!
    Richard Brown dataroom services

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