Active Weather Pattern Starts Early Next Week

Our persistent ridge of high pressure will be pushed out to sea as a large storm drops out of the Gulf of AK. In the meantime the latest Typhoon, will spin around this low and bring much needed soaking rains to all of California. For Rose to open, top to bottom, by Halloween, snow elevations are critical in these next series of storms.

First, take a look at the Pacific:


First, the northern storm will send a shortwave right through the Tahoe area. Although this wave will weaken the further it moves inland, we should pick up some precip very late on Monday or Early Tuesday morning especially west of Lake Tahoe and west of the Sierra in general:


Right now it looks like there will be a strong shadow effect and the Carson Range may be left out. We will keep an eye on this. This is another fairly warm storm and snow levels will hover around that 8,000 foot mark.

The next storm, which wraps around this low pressure system, will pick up a very strong moisture tap and should bring very beneficial rains as far south as San Diego on Friday:


Here is the liquid precip forecast for the next 10 days:



This is a very fluid pattern, and we will be posting updates on both storms and a very active pattern that could well continue through December!

Our top researcher, Paul Huntington, who predicted the amazing storms of last weekend, weeks prior to that event filed this report:

Might want to run the models tonight and post. I think the GFS and ECMWF are narrowing in on the Thursday night/ Friday cut off low and how it will wrap into southern sierras. It looks like it could be a moisture rich storm with high pwats possibly tapping into an atmospheric river. I am seeing the "rain" train starting soon after this low and looks like its going to be a long run of snowy wet windy weather with our next break around mid/late November (gonna be short lived i think) and then colder storms moving in around early December thru Christmas. Definitely a very conducive North Pacific for a wet active late Fall and Winter!! Finally not a drought and not a hyped up super El Nino but a good old fashioned California Tahoe Winter! Phew!!

Stay Tuned ...

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