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Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Long Range Outlook

Ok friends, normally when I receive a bunch of mail, I do nothing. However, after yesterday's forecast it would appear that many other forecasters are in disagreement with myself.

Truth be told, I lean heavily on the ECMWF model. That is the European model. It has a much larger budget than the North American models and I believe it is much more accurate, especially long term.

Rarely, will I post a forecast without a graphic backing up what I am saying. When GFS and ECMWF are in agreement, then I post with great confidence.

There are, however, some anomalies taking place that are unprecedented. We were suppose to slip into a La Nina pattern. However, the typhoon season on the other side of the Pacific sent Kelvin Waves that basically wiped out La Nina. In fact, there is at least a possibility that El Nino could come back.

Paul Huntington has been all over this since September. He believes that the models are not reflecting what he is seeing as of yet. Remember, Paul has been spot on with his Long Range Outlooks. So we should have no reason to doubt what he has to say.

Here is a report he filed yesterday:

Just read last post and I know its really hard to believe things are returning to a normal wet pattern but I truly think they are. I'm surprised the models you are looking at are not seeing it yet? What model are you using and I will start doing more research into the algorithms they are running. The systems modeling class I took in college had a couple different ways they spin out numbers and quite different results can occur. This is an extraordinary time for California weather as we have entered a "new" climate that is going to do things no one imagined! The La Nina is eroding extremely quickly now with a strong oceanic Kelvin wave on its western front downwelling, moving eastward off the Mariana trench into shallower waters, and coastal Peru is starting to become anomalously warm. Its heading into a Modoki El Nino quickly but with the warm pool east of the Central Northern equatorial zone. This creates a low pressure along the eastern Pacific ITCZ belt like a "mini" el nino but with a jet stream more northern with cooler air-perfect for Tahoe!!!  Moreover, the arctic ice sheet is presently at a record low now for mid November and something no one alive has ever seen along with the polar vortices about to split soon- like tomorrow. The way the cold air and warm air interact along with how the ITCZ relinquishes or redistributes its heat would seem to be very supportive of a lower latitude jet stream and a very weak high or ridge on the frontend of the planetary waves that seasonally build in strength with deep cold low pressures fueling them as the days shorten. The two schematics below are Antarctica Oscillation which has been strangely negative lately but now the Rossby waves are flattening out and hugging the ice sheet which helps pull the northern hemispheric main mid latitude jetstream southward. The North Atlantic Oscillation is the other one and follows in close suite to the Arctic Oscillation due to the polar vortices splitting and having effects on both Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins simultaneously. Bottom line pretty much every teleconnection globally is in place for a long active stretch of active weather and will be very interesting to see what types of storms these dynamics bring to life!! Spatially and geographically who gets hit is impossible to pin point at the moment. I want to say Mammoth and the Wood are gonna get it this year???

Stay Tuned ...