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Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Prediction on track for snow to begin Tuesday November 15

Forecast by Paul Huntington

Not much to say about that last anemic low that just completely fizzled out and I did not see that happening as the inland high has been extremely weak since end of last February and to be honest got me bit worried about drought returning. Nevertheless, changes are on the horizon starting Tuesday Nov 15 and it seems my prediction is on track!! This should be the beginning of an active pattern that could be supportive of colder storms that should allow most of Tahoe to open by Thanksgiving? The teleconnections at the moment are conducive for troughing along the West Central coast of North America beginning next week with hopefully the storm track becoming progressive and continuing into December. Many variables are at play but here are some of the major ones: 1.) East Pacific Inter tropical Convergance Zone in the Pacific is acting up which generally supports a lower latitude jet stream in Northeast Pacific that can dip down to the Los Angeles area, 2.) the arctic oscillation is spiking positive in next couple days but then it appears the polar vortex high is splitting, going negative, and allowing the jet stream or Rossby waves to meander further south, undercutting the omega block and bringing in some cold air along with it, 3.) Pacific North America Pattern that is feeding the jet stream coming off Asia is beginning to move a bit further north and heading toward a more La Nina type trajectory but is very much finding a middle path with these November systems and is right where we want it to feed our hungry North Pacific ocean with energized low pressures. 4.) Lastly the above average sea surface temperatures off the California coast and east equatorial (bit above equator out of the El Nino zones or ENSO area) pacific is supporting the flow of the warmer winter Davidson current of Central California and if the heat from this warm coastal ocean surface water interacts with the lows dipping down it could allow some deep atmospheric rivers to become entrained into the colder lows and would mean heavy rains hitting most of California soon!! I got my fingers crossed but its looking pretty darn good at the moment for drought breaking storms to start stacking up!!!!




cheers to Tahoe opening soon, Paul Huntington

Stay Tuned ...

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