As the cold front passed through last night, it severed the line of warm moist air to Tahoe. As a result, it looks now like we may receive an extended break, with the exception of a fast moving, much cooler storm that is on tap for this weekend.
The original model runs showed a much better moisture tap. Now, this storm's trajectory is much more out of the north and I do not see a major weather event like what we have witnessed over the last couple of months. Once this storm moves out, high pressure will take over for at least 4-5 days.
The storm will arrive Sunday afternoon and be gone by Monday at noon. Here is a quick look at the forecast for Sunday evening:
This is a much cooler storm than we have seen in quite some time, so I look for higher snow ratios. In fact, I still see around 2 feet of very light powder for Mt. Rose on Monday. While the other side of the lake could see double that in some places particularly at the Sierra Crest.
Here is what we are looking at in the way of liquid precip:
A far cry from our earlier forecast, but better snow to ski/ride on and a period for Northern California to dry out and possibly avert further disaster.
Lake Tahoe is currently at 6,226.66 feet. Which is nearly 4 inches above the natural rim of the lake. In Tahoe city they are opening spill ways to relieve the lake of water as it approaches its legal limit. The legal limit is the maximum amount of water the lake can hold before literally all spillways must be open to prevent significant damage to homes and property. Remember, we have a record snow pack right now all round the lake and come spring, that water is going to flow into the lake so we could well approach that legal limit. In addition, we could be looking at an above average spring in the way of precip. One of our meteorologists predicts the monsoons of the Southwest will make it as far north as Tahoe this summer and we believe next winter could also be very wet.
The last time we had this type of precip where the Lake threatened to reach its legal limit was in the early 1900's. After a big winter such as this one, the next winter was also very wet, so the authorities are looking at a historic event and trying to plan accordingly ... good luck. After 4 years of record breaking drought, mother nature has turned the tables and picking up thousands of trillions of gallons of water, desalinating that water and dumping it on California.
Stay Tuned ...