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Tuesday, April 4, 2017

Time for the Something Decent; Huntington see's Wet April

If you read the last post, we are now approaching what we termed a decent storm. Here are the details:

  • Approaching storm will mean above average temps tomorrow as storm's counter clockwise rotation brings in sub-tropical air.
  • Thursday starts out warm, but as storm approaches, temperatures begin to drop and winds begin to increase, especially Thursday afternoon.
  • Very early Friday approaching storm reaches Sierra and has a very adequate moisture tap.
  • Moisture should be moderate to heavy through Saturday as this storm is moving much slower than the last series of storms.
  • Storm could produce as much as 10 inches of liquid precip at the Sierra Crest South around Mammoth and up to 5 inches in the Carson Range. That classifies this as a very strong spring storm.
Here is a look at the GFS forecast for late Friday night as the storm peaks around then:


Here is a look at the total precip. Some areas of the Central Sierra could pick up 10+ inches of liquid precip, which would make this not only a strong spring storm, but a record breaker:


Snow levels will start very high, but I believe in the Carson Range we will see all snow at 8,000 feet. Snow levels will fall during the event as well and will reach 6,000 feet by the end.

The leeward valley's could see an inch of rain, the foothills could see 2-3 inches of rain and snow mixture.

Paul Huntington, who lives in an undisclosed location in Central California is starting to recover from record flooding and is back, at least temporarily, online. He filed this report:

Getting back on track and road repairs are ongoing from debris flows and slides but I am back to normalcy- almost! I found a really good precip graphic on the California Nevada River Forecast Centers site and is the best I have seen and I like how it only goes out 6 days so its fairly accurate! I have attached it for you and it might be a good one to start using on your week out forecasting. Mid to late April is looking very wet and stormy and im hypothesizing that the Peruvian "Coastal El Nino" or "El Nino-E" (E stands for East Pacific, whereas El Nino-C are more central like the 2015-2016 Winter) is playing a role in this abnormally wet pattern we are about to enter. This warming and thunderstorm activity (low pressure) in the East equatorial pacific is partly responsible for the low latitude jet stream indicative of positive Pacific North America Pattern. When the jet takes this path the Arctic Oscillation just has to lean toward negative values and wet moisture rich low pressures will find a comfortable pathway across California. Its a bit concerning to me flood wise and even Oroville dams integrity could be threatened again if what im seeing plays out into late April!



Stay Tuned ...

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