As Ridge Breaks Down, We Could (finally) See a Decent Storm

Our persistent high pressure ridge has been dominating our weather for most of the season, which is not totally unusual. However, the weakness of the storms to penetrate the ridge has been somewhat surprising. We are starting to see at least a temporary break-down of the ridge as it slides south which should open the storm door for 4 or 5 day event starting next weekend.

Here is our current condition:



Notice how this ridge is blocking any storms from getting to our area and blocking any tropical moisture taps for storms that do reach our area.  Our weather is sliding down the eastern side of the ridge is also bringing us much colder air.

Now take a look at what develops for next weekend:


As the ridge slides south, the jet dips down and through our area. There are then several storms that should slam right into us. Our tropical moisture tap is still being blocked, but we are tapping into some moisture which should increase the amount of precip these storms deliver.

We should start to see activity as soon as Saturday (1/05) with the peek moisture beginning on Sunday (1/06):


I like the chances of these storms sticking around and providing a moderate snow event the Sierra through the following Wednesday (1/09) or beyond. Here is a look at very early Tuesday (1/08):



Finally, here is a look at the precip forecast, remember this is liquid precip for this event through January 9th:


We have not seen precip potential like this all year as the Carson Range is clearly in the 4-6 inch range would could translate to 5 very needed feet of snow.

These storms will probably come in slightly warmer with snow levels in the 7,000 foot range and being variable as several waves of warm and then cold air bring moisture through the area.

Stay Tuned ...

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