High Pressure in Control; Major Pattern Change on Horizon

We are currently being dominated by High Pressure that is setup off the California coast:


This large ridge of high pressure is blocking storms coming to our area. It is also blocking any sort of moisture tap for storms that can make it in.

A perfect example; A storm will try and make it's way into our area tomorrow. However, it will be blocked and it's trajectory will be too far out of the north. In addition, it has literally no moisture to tap into. Therefore, we will get wind and cold but very little precip:


This will bring us some moisture, but nothing like a real Sierra storm. The above forecast is the EC, which is much more bullish on this event than the GFS.

Major Pattern Change?
We are seeing at least the possibility of a major pattern change that should start to take shape round the 6th of January, 2020. Here is a look at late on the 7th. As the pattern shifts, the high is split in two and shoved out to sea:

Notice the moisture tail returning and the door open for northern storms to come into the Tahoe area and tap into the tropical moisture. This the combination for real Sierra storms.

This is still a bit outside of our high confidence range, but the models are showing some real promise here.

Stay Tuned ...

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