When Will it Snow Again? Season Snowfall Forecast

The question of the month is when will snow return to Lake Tahoe?

Depending on your patience, this is either good or bad news; Currently high pressure is in complete control of the entire West Coast:


Unfortunately, we see this blocking high moving only slightly. What does that mean? It means in the short term there is no significant precip coming to Tahoe. We do not predict man made snow, for that I suggest you go over to Unofficial Rose. You can get the true heartbeat of the mountain there as well. We just due natural weather here.

Now, if you are patient, we see a pattern shift begin around the 29th of November. Again this is still 9 days out, but our two most reliable models are forecasting this pattern change. Here is the forecast for Monday November 29th:

This is the outer ring of a massive storm that is centered off the coast of Central BC. Between now and the 29th, if that storm moves a bit south we could see major precipitation. As it is, we should get a pretty decent shot of snow. Snow levels, right now, look pretty good for most of Tahoe, around 7,000 feet.

We believe this event will open the storm door for Lake Tahoe and the entire Pacific Northwest and will update as we move closer to the event.

Because, conditions have moved so dry we decided to take out the long term crystal ball and here is what we are seeing starting on around 12th of December:


Again, quite a ways out, but this would be a typical pattern as we move deeper into the rainy season.

So you see, all hope is not lost!

2021/2022 Tahoe Winter Outlook

Sorry for the delay on this. Remember trying to predict an entire season is just plain foolish. But, we have had the magic touch the last 5 years, (our predictions within 10% of actual and right on last year) so we will give it another shot.

Yes, this will be a La Nina winter. Yes, most major weather outlets are saying we will again be 30% below precipitation averages this winter. No, they are not correct.

La Nina is but a single variable that helps us predict but usually makes weather forecasters look quite foolish. Our snowiest winter ever was a La Nina winter.

We have been below average for several years now. Averages exist for a reason. We cannot possibly be below average for too long, at least that is our thinking and it has held up pretty well over the years.

La Nina has fewer storms traditionally. However, some of those storms can be massive. During some La Nina winters we can get into weather patterns that send multiple large storms our way.

Therefore, our best guess (guess being the key word, we literally just threw a dart at a board of percentages), that because of averages and the fact that we are due, we see around 90-95% of average precipitation. That translates to about 320 inches of snow for the Carson Range and Mt. Rose.

Stay Tuned ...



Comments

  1. Yup not all La Ninas are dry. The 2010-2011 La Nina was very wet when 21 inches of rain fell in Los Angeles

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    Replies
    1. Yes, excellent point. They are predicting doom and gloom for SoCal, but that is based on La Nina which is very fickle. Thanks for the comment Shawn!

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