Cooler Weather Coming to Tahoe; 2022/2023 Tahoe Winter Forecast
First things first. We have a slider type system that will come down the Eastern Sierra and bring us much cooler temperatures. About 20-30 degrees cooler. This system is expected to arrive about mid-day Saturday (October 22nd).
The Northern Rockies and Cascade Ranges will pick up some early season snow. We will not. Our time will come eventually, however, as the storm machine starts to crank up.
Looking ahead to Thursday the 27th, we are talking about a good chance of mountain snow, as a system comes in from the Northwest:
After a strange weather year last, which saw major events in October and December but very dry after that. Here is a look at the ENSO forecast from the various weather models. ENSO, or El Nino Southern Oscillation, can be a decent indicator of what to expect over the course of several months.
We will remain in a moderate La Nina through January. Then things could get interesting as the Equatorial Waters off the Northern coast of South America begin to warm. In fact this chart is predicting an El Nino condition but the summer of 2023. But let's not get too far ahead.
We still like averages and we have been below average for some time. The ENSO chart above gives us some hope that we can snap out of our current losing streak.
We want to stress that this is really just a guess, but we see a near average winter for snowfall in the Northern Sierra. For Mt. Rose that is 350 inches. You can see some of the outlier models that predict anything from a strong La Nina to a moderate El Nino. So our confidence is not high, but we have averages that have held since keeping records for a reason. That average, however, could spring back next year.
We are not in charge, Mother Nature is and we will have to wait and see what she has in store for us.
Stay Tuned ...