Pattern to Remain Active Through Mid-January
We are in a very active, wet weather pattern. All indications are that this pattern will remain active through at least the middle of January.
We are on the cusp of a huge, wet and warm storm moving into the Tahoe Area. This storm has a sub-tropical moisture tap that is very powerful and is moving very warm and humid air into the Tahoe region and driving snow levels up to around 10,000 feet.
We are then looking at a much cooler but also a much weaker system for the 2nd of January:
This system breaks up as it hits the Sierra. I expect at most just a few inches of snow for Mt. Rose.
Here is the precipitation forecast for the next couple of weeks:
Most of Tahoe is looking at around 14-16 inches of liquid precip. Much of that will fall in the way of rain below 8,000 feet. Many of the leeward valley locations, like Reno and Carson City, will get their average rainfall for the entire year in the next 2 weeks!
However, those levels will fall quickly to around 8,000 feet by Friday night (12/30). Eventually, they will drop down to around 6,500 feet. By then most of the moisture will have moved on. Here is a look at the forecast for Saturday afternoon:
We are then looking at a much cooler but also a much weaker system for the 2nd of January:
This system breaks up as it hits the Sierra. I expect at most just a few inches of snow for Mt. Rose.
Then, another very warm and wet system moves into the Sierra on Wednesday the 4th:
This system will stick around and be reenergized through the 8th of January. I believe this system will bring mostly snow to the high base of Slide Mountain, but it will start as rain up to 10,000 feet again!
Finally, a much cooler system is on tap for the 11th of January:
Here is the precipitation forecast for the next couple of weeks:
Most of Tahoe is looking at around 14-16 inches of liquid precip. Much of that will fall in the way of rain below 8,000 feet. Many of the leeward valley locations, like Reno and Carson City, will get their average rainfall for the entire year in the next 2 weeks!
Mother Nature tends to catch up to her averages during a short duration. Makes me ponder where these climate models are getting their data? Climatic changes occur over long periods of time, tens of thousands of years or more. Whenever we are dry in California, we hear that is because you drive an SUV. Then we get these periods and we hear nothing. Folks, we are just guests, Ma Nature is in charge, not us. Ma Nature likes balance and is very good at keeping things balanced. We have no idea what generates these storms and when they will occur. None. We do know that in seconds Ma Nature can pick up trillions of gallons of ocean water, desalinate it, and dump it on land. Think about that power! Tip your cap to her, she is an awesome force.
Stay Tuned ...