Short Break, Storms Return Friday
The last weather pattern was an overachiever. The first of the season! Mt. Rose even managed to open the world famous Chutes. For those of us fortunate to be there on Thursday, they were spectacular.
We are in for some stable weather through Thursday with gradually increasing temperatures that should hover around average for this time of year.
Then, a major pattern change comes to Tahoe and all of California. This pattern has some potential for some very serious snowfall in the Sierra and even the potential for heavy rain in the leeward valleys of Reno and Carson City.
Here is what we are seeing now:
Friday night (2/16)
Monday Afternoon (2/19) - Notice the moisture tail and warm/cold air convergence
You get the idea. We have a very active pattern that comes inland sometime Friday and could last for a week or more.
A few qualifiers here. The GFS model is very bullish on this event. The EC believes there could be a rain shadow effect for the Carson Range. The CMC is somewhere in the middle.
Here is the GFS precip forecast for the next 10 days. That 10 is 10+ inches of liquid precip for a good portion of the Northern Sierra. We could be looking at 4-8 feet of additional snow in the Carson Range.
These storms are very indicative of El Nino. They will be quite warm with snow levels probably hovering around 7,000 - 8,000 feet. Again, we believe all snow for Mt. Rose. Some of the other Tahoe resorts could be looking at rain on the lower mountains.
We will keep an eye on this pattern change and report accordingly.
Stay Tuned ...