Storm For Monday and Seasonal Outlook

First things first, there is a storm that will come in and deliver around 6 inches of snow to Slide Mountain on Monday afternoon. We will take all we can get! Mt. Rose high base will come in handy as this storm will begin on the warm side.

I am not seeing any large storms after that for a few weeks. Luckily I have a crystal ball that can look quite a ways into the future. What I am seeing is a pattern change. Currently, we have our persistent ridge of high pressure that is blocking storms from making it down this far south. The pattern could change around Thanksgiving as the ridge breaks down and a series of storms could enter our area. Here is a look at the forecast for Thanksgiving day.

Winter Outlook

As we look toward the upcoming winter, what are we seeing? We have been pretty lucky with our winter forecasts the last several years. Disclaimer: Ma Nature is in charge!

For starters we are going to see a moderate to strong La Nina. What does that mean? In short it means the surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are below average. ENSO, which stands for El Nino Southern Oscillation, can be used as a winter season predictor in our area. Of course like anything else it is not very reliable, but some areas are better than others.

For example, our winter will be colder than average. That almost always happens with a La Nina. 

Most people expect the winter to be drier than average. However, that is not always the case. La Nina can spin up some pretty powerful storms and has in the past. Our two snowiest winters on record, were La Nina years, as were our two driest.

So as far aa precipitation, what does this La Nina have in store for us? I believe we will have a major series of storms between Thanksgiving and the 2nd week in December. We will be in the late phase of the MJO which could bode well for us.

As far as the season, we are looking at average to slightly above average precipitation. 

Stay Tuned ...