First Storm of Season on Tap for Monday and Tuesday; Seasonal Outlook

The rainy season does not start for 3 weeks. However, we have storm coming to Tahoe for Monday and Tuesday. Here is the forecast for early Tuesday morning:

Of course this will be a warmer storm, but expect snow above 9,000 feet and in some areas along the Sierra Crest that snow will be heavy. Our temperatures will quickly recover and much of that snow will end up melting because the sun is still very strong this time of year. Most of the leeward valleys will be shadowed out so do not expect any heavy rain in Reno or Carson.

We are not seeing any major weather events for the next several weeks after this storm.

Seasonal Outlook

What will this winter bring? Of course trying to predict this is always crap shoot. We live in Nevada so why not? Surprisingly our predictions have been within 5% the last 6 years (look it up!).

The first thing we look at is the El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO. Right now we are in a neutral ENSO. However, that will most likely transition to La Nina starting this month and lasting through the rest of 2025. Below is the model forecast for ENSO through June of 2026. The average has us in a moderate to weak La Nina through March, with the lowest temps being in December.

What does that mean? Not much! La Nina years can be epic, but most forecasters associate La Nina with dry and cool for our area. La Nina years do not spin up as many storms, but the storms can be massive and that is what we are hoping for in November and early December.

The next thing we look at is averages. Averages do not lie. For 3 of the past 4 years we have been at or above average. That tells me we are due for a below average year. Again, I want to point out that this forecast is nothing but a uneducated guess. We are looking at about 305 inches of snow in the Carson Range above 9,000 feet, which is about 5 feet below our annual average. We are also thinking the cool weather that we experienced all summer will continue and our temperatures will be below average for the year.

I hope we are wrong!

Stay Tuned ...