Strange Storm Has Some Potential
What looked like a very predictable storm coming out of the Gulf of Alaska is proving to be quite baffling to the weather models.
Here is what we expect for now:
- Today (11/13) - Storm has moved on shore but there is a strong rain shadow. Mt. Rose will be kept away from the precip until later tonight. The leeward valleys could pick up some precip (all rain) early tomorrow morning. Snow levels will be greater than 8,000 feet.
- Tomorrow (11/14) - Storm moves out of the area by mid morning. The air remains very warm.
- Saturday (11/15) - Storm does an about face and moves back north by late Saturday night. Still very warm with snow levels over 8,000 feet.
- Sunday (11/16) - Storm is kicked out by a cold front from the north. Temperatures begin to drop.
- Monday (11/17) - Cold front comes through and snow levels fall to around 6,000 feet.
- Thursday (11/20) - Another storm comes in from the west. This storm is cooler and snow levels will be below 7,000 feet.
That is what we are seeing. To sum it all up, Mt. Rose is going to get shadowed out of most of the precipitation. Here is the graphical forecast:
Thursday 10:00pm (11/13)
Saturday 10:00pm (11/15)
Monday 10:00pm (11/17)
Thursday 4:00am (11/20)
You can see the warmth of the storms by the red lines which mean warm air. In addition, these storms are having trouble making it over the Sierra and that will have a negative effect on Mt. Rose.
Here is the precip forecast for the entire week:
Lots of moisture for California, could be flooding in the southern part of the state. Clearly there is a ton of moisture, so this storm has some potential. Unfortunately it is being shadowed and is very warm for most of the event. Maybe pick up 1-2 feet on Mt. Rose of very wet snow.
Looking ahead, our temperatures are going to drop around the 24th. We are not seeing any storms before Thanksgiving, so let's hope this overachieves!
Stay Tuned ...