Storms start on New Years day and Continue for Ten Days
We just got the latest ECMWF model run and it looks good. As usual, not all news is good news. The storms are increasing in intensity and frequency, that is the good news. However, they will start out very warm, with snow levels around 8,500-9,000 feet ... or maybe even higher. Here is what we are seeing:
New Years Day 2026
Very warm storm for New Years with snow levels above most Tahoe ski resorts. A good deal of the precip will be in the Central Sierra. We do not see a major amount for Tahoe, which is good because the snow levels will be around 9,000 feet.
Notice to the west the very cold air, that will play into the next, strong storm.
Saturday January 3rd, 2026
This is a much colder and stronger storm. Snow levels will plummet to below 6,000 feet so it will be all snow for all Tahoe resorts at all elevations;
Sunday January 4th, 2026
This storm continues with a reenforcing storm just off shore. Snow levels could approach the valley floor, however there will be a rain shadow, so not expecting much.
Monday January 5th
Offshore storm moves on shore and takes aim at the Sierra. This will be a warmer storm as it will pull warm, moist air up from the tropics. However, we still expect snow levels to hover around 7,000. We will get a very short break for a few hours on Tuesday afternoon and evening before a cold front moves down from the north.
Wednesday January 7th
Cold front drops down from the north. This will be all snow for all Tahoe resorts. Expect light snow in the leeward valleys too.
Thursday January 9th
This storm has some potential. Certainly a chance for another AR event as cold air from the north collides with very warm, moist air from the south ... right over Tahoe. Now this is quite a ways out and only the ECMWF is seeing this right now. The GFS has this storm moving too far inland and bringing us just cold air.
What does it all add up to?
This is the most bullish of the precip forecast over the next 10 days. The EC has a greater shadow for the Carson Range. Based on both models we are predicting 4-6 additional feet of snow for Mt. Rose in the next 10 days.
Looking out a tad further, the pattern does appear to remain active ... time will tell.
Something Else
A number of you have commented on how daylight hours work. We all know the the shortest day is the Winter Solstice and the longest day is the Summer Solstice. But what about between those times. First of all the Earth is tilted on its axis. When it is tilted away from the Sun, daylight hours after the Winter Solstice increase at a much slower rate. Likewise they decrease at a slower rate near the Summer Solstice. Here is a chart of daylight hours, by month for the Tahoe area:
Notice in June we have over 5 more hours of daylight than in December. Each month prior to the summer solstice will pick up a little bit more daylight than the prior month.
Suffice it to say, we are on the uptrend in daylight hours. It won't be long before Mt. Rose is open until 6:00pm on Fridays!
Happy New Year!