Slow Pattern Change in a Week; Shortly After the New Year, Major Changes Possible
For you skiers and riders, we are continually looking for storms. Because this is a long range weather forecasting service, most of you are depending on us to let you know when this historical dry and warm period will come to a screeching halt. Suffice it to say, it will come to a screeching halt. Let's start with the near term as we have a couple of weak storms that will make it into our area in about a week:
Clearly the storms are growing in size. Our problem is the persistent ridge in the Jet Stream that is forcing everything north. That appears to be at least weakening.The storms for the week of the 14th are not game changing they are showing a change in the pattern.
Then around the 19th of December we finally have a decent precipitation event. It will still be warm, but should be all snow for Mt. Rose:
Again, not a game changer but further evidence that winter will be arriving, just late. Speaking of winter, the solstice comes up the 21st of December and our days start getting longer.
The next piece of evidence that we are looking at is the Arctic Oscillation. As it moves positive, it is a sign that the weather pattern is changing and good things usually happen for the ski resorts around Tahoe. Here is the forecast:
As we move toward Christmas, we are forecast to move into the positive area.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. The ECMWF Long Range forecast is showing a major series of storms starting around the 3rd of January:
Notice the ridging to the west is gone, shoved out to sea where it belongs! That opens a corridor for storms to drop down and connect with subtropical moisture, what we used to call the Pineapple Express.
I guess the operative word is patience. Of course we have no choice because Ma Nature is in charge and sometimes she just takes her sweet time!
For now, I have a tee time for December golf in shorts, things could be worse. Enjoy the beautiful weather, because it is going to change!
Stay Tuned ...