Tahoe Weather Blog

Sunday/Monday Storm Not much has changed since yesterday's post for the storm coming Sunday and Monday. Both EC and GFS have this thing coming in Sunday afternoon and lasting through Monday, with the bulk of the precip very early Monday morning. Both models have downgraded the amount of precip associated with this storm to around .5 to 1 inch of liquid precip for Slide Mountain and double that for west of the Sierra Crest. The NAM model is talking about 1 inch for the Carson range which is the most optimistic of the forecasts. Therefore, unless something changes drastically, expect 3-12 inches of snow at Slide Mountain by Monday morning. Here is the NAM precip forecast through Monday:   As you can see, most of the action is on or west of the Crest. Next Weeks Forecast I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it does look like this storm cycle is winding down. High Pressure is moving in to our west and south. These ridges can be stubborn and difficult to move. When they cam

The storm for Sunday that I have been talking about in my last couple of posts has slowed somewhat and will probably not hit until later in the day. That storm will track right over us. That means as the storms moves by, it will pull down cold air from the north. Conversely, as the storm approaches it will be bringing up warm air from the south. That is due to the counter clockwise rotation of the low pressure system. Take a look at the EC forecast for Sunday afternoon, followed by the GFS forecast for the same time: EC Forecast Late Sunday Afternoon GFS Forecast, Late Sunday Afternoon   You can see that GFS has the storm quickly moving past us and then stalling out bringing cold snow to the area on Monday. EC has the storm hitting later, with the precip on the front end, which of course would be mean heavier, wetter snow. Regardless, both models are calling for only about an inch of precip in the Sierra and about half that for the Carson Range. My initial forecast is 4-12 in

Today and Tomorrow's Storm The storm that I have been talking about for a couple of weeks is here and is following just what the models have forecasted. It has moved north which still leaves plenty of precip for our area. It should be snowing in the Sierra for at least the next 24 hours. The crest will pick up between 1 and 3 feet. The Carson Range (Slide Mtn) should pick up about half of that, 6-18 inches. This is because of a string south wind that is keeping the bulk of the precip in the Sierra. Here is an updated look at precip totals through Friday: Sunday's Storm Sunday's storm is also on target for what I talked about in my last post. It looks like a shot of pretty intense snow starting Sunday morning and lasting through the day. Here is a look at the forecast for very early Sunday morning: This is also a warmer storm that should bring rain to all areas of the valley. Snow levels will probably be in the 7,000 foot neighborhood, which means rain at lake l

  Tuesday and Wednesday (3/2, 3/3) The Arctic air has cleared the area making room for a much warmer storm to hit the area starting late on Wednesday and lasting through Thursday. As I wrote in my last blog, the bulk of the energy in this storm is heading north of us. This storm was born in the south and does carry significant moisture. I am pretty comfortable with the time frame of when this storm is going to hit. However, I would be remiss to not mention that the EC model has this storm hitting about 24 hours later on Thursday night. How much precip can we expect? That is a good question. Right now it looks like a quick hitting event that will produce snow at or above Lake Level. Any moisture for the valley will come in the form of rain. However a strong south wind may well shield the valley from any precip. It will be windy. Slide mountain will also be affected by this wind as the snow totals will be less than the Sierra Crest. Here is what the NAM model see's for total precip:

After another healthy shot of snow for the Sierra, we will have gradual warming starting tomorrow. The models are now downplaying the weather event on the 3rd, however both the EC and GFS are in agreement that a storm will be moving through the area. Late on the 2nd our next storm should come in. This is a big storm but does appear to have  most of the energy moving to the north: The 6th or the 8th looks like more of a direct hit, here is the EC Forecast for the 8th, incidentally, GFS has this storm coming on the 6th of March as a start to a series of storms. In my last post I talked about a weather pattern change for around the 12th or 13th of March. I may have jumped the gun on that one. I point at two pieces of evidence for this. First, the EC model shows a series of storms heading for Tahoe from the 6th of March through at least the 14th. Secondly, the PNA's positive trend is short lived and starts to trend much more negatively. Take a look: My gut tells me that this

Current Storm Just a quick post this morning. I just looked at the latest QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) run from the NAM weather model. It is calling for about 2-3 inches of liquid precip by Sunday. Remember, this storm is bringing in super cooled Arctic air. Many forecasters are calling for 20-1 or even 25-1 snow to water ratios. That means many parts of the Sierra around Tahoe could pick up 4 feet of snow or more. This will be the lightest snow we have seen in years (champagne powder). Here is a look at the NAM forecast: Severe Avalanche Danger Today This from the Sierra Avalanche Center ( Click For Sierra Avalanche Center ):   Near and above treeline, avalanche danger is HIGH on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects 32 degrees and steeper. Below treeline avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects on slopes 35 degrees and steeper. Large destructive avalanches are likely today. Next Storm (March 2nd) The next storm will be warmer and come from the south and west. It too

Pattern Change For the first time we are seeing indications that the blocking high to our North and West will be moving on and a ridge will set up to our south and west. This would suggest that our current storm cycle may end in about 14-17 days from now. The NOAA PNA is beginning to trend positive: The PNA is a very good indicator for our general weather pattern. In addition, temps look to be on the rebound around this same time with perhaps an above average reading for the first time in weeks. Of course this is still 2-3 weeks down the road. Storm Update We are still on Track for a quick moving, very cold storm to hit very early on Friday and last through the day. Then the following Thursday could usher in a series of much larger storms that could hang around for an additional 4-5 days. For more detail see yesterday's post. This series of storms will come from the west and should knock our blocking high out, which would change the weather pattern, at least that is the co