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Friday, March 4, 2011

Quick Update

Sunday/Monday Storm
Not much has changed since yesterday's post for the storm coming Sunday and Monday. Both EC and GFS have this thing coming in Sunday afternoon and lasting through Monday, with the bulk of the precip very early Monday morning. Both models have downgraded the amount of precip associated with this storm to around .5 to 1 inch of liquid precip for Slide Mountain and double that for west of the Sierra Crest. The NAM model is talking about 1 inch for the Carson range which is the most optimistic of the forecasts. Therefore, unless something changes drastically, expect 3-12 inches of snow at Slide Mountain by Monday morning. Here is the NAM precip forecast through Monday:



As you can see, most of the action is on or west of the Crest.

Next Weeks Forecast
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it does look like this storm cycle is winding down. High Pressure is moving in to our west and south. These ridges can be stubborn and difficult to move. When they camp there, storms go around them, clockwise, and are pushed to our north. GFS and EC, the two most reliable long range weather forecast models have this ridge setting up next week. They are forecasting no precip for at least 10 days, after Monday. There are some indications that this break in the cycle may be a short one. I will keep an eye on that.

Stay Tuned ...

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