Latest Model Runs Show Increase In Precip Totals - Severe Avalanche Warning

Current Storm
Just a quick post this morning. I just looked at the latest QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) run from the NAM weather model. It is calling for about 2-3 inches of liquid precip by Sunday. Remember, this storm is bringing in super cooled Arctic air. Many forecasters are calling for 20-1 or even 25-1 snow to water ratios. That means many parts of the Sierra around Tahoe could pick up 4 feet of snow or more. This will be the lightest snow we have seen in years (champagne powder). Here is a look at the NAM forecast:


Severe Avalanche Danger Today
This from the Sierra Avalanche Center (Click For Sierra Avalanche Center): 
Near and above treeline, avalanche danger is HIGH on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects 32 degrees and steeper. Below treeline avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects on slopes 35 degrees and steeper. Large destructive avalanches are likely today.

Next Storm (March 2nd)
The next storm will be warmer and come from the south and west. It too is very large and should carry a huge precip punch. Here is the GFS look for the 2nd of March:


Although the center of the storm is north of us, it actually moved up from the south. The next and probably last storm in the series is scheduled for March 7th. I will fine tune as we move closer.


Enjoy the POW this weekend, it should be the best we seen here in years! Remember SEVERE AVALANCHE WARNING, so be safe.

Stay Tuned ...

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