The Arctic air has cleared the area making room for a much warmer storm to hit the area starting late on Wednesday and lasting through Thursday. As I wrote in my last blog, the bulk of the energy in this storm is heading north of us. This storm was born in the south and does carry significant moisture. I am pretty comfortable with the time frame of when this storm is going to hit. However, I would be remiss to not mention that the EC model has this storm hitting about 24 hours later on Thursday night. How much precip can we expect? That is a good question. Right now it looks like a quick hitting event that will produce snow at or above Lake Level. Any moisture for the valley will come in the form of rain. However a strong south wind may well shield the valley from any precip. It will be windy. Slide mountain will also be affected by this wind as the snow totals will be less than the Sierra Crest. Here is what the NAM model see's for total precip:
If you look closely, the crest is looking at 1.5 - 2.0 inches. That will translate to around 18-30 inches of snow. If you look at the Carson range (Slide Mtn), we are looking at about an 1-1.25 inches. That will translate to about 8-16 inches. This will not be the beautiful, light powder we saw on Friday and Saturday. However it will not be Sierra Cement either. That snow total should make some very good skiing and riding.
Another storm will hit us more directly and produce more snow on Sunday of this weekend. I can see 2-2.5 inches of moisture for the Tahoe Sierra with this storm. Here is a look at the GFS model for very early Sunday morning:
This will also be a warmer storm that should put some rain in the valley's. I will fine tune the time line and amounts later this week.
Stay Tuned ...