Tahoe Weather Blog

I just looked at the latest EC run. Unfortunately, the smaller storms for this week appear to have fallen apart. Our blocking ridge is moving south, but also east. That means it will continue to block any storms from coming into our area ... yucksville! There is a glimmer of hope for late Saturday into Sunday for some reasonable precip as the biggest of the systems will shove that ridge south and west, perhaps allowing for a short storm window. EC is still forecasting the following for Sunday morning: Unfortunately, immediately after this storm our blocking ridge appears to be moving well north and east. Remember this; There are no normal weather events. Forecasters rarely use the word normal, when they do it is a mistake. Especially for our area. There are only averages. 3 years ago we were inundated with record breaking snow. Parts of Squaw Valley had a season total of nearly 1,000 inches of the white stuff. The law of averages has caught up with us these past two years. Ho

A series of small systems could come through our area starting next Tuesday. The stormy weather could last through the following weekend with each system getting progressively larger culminating on the 11th with a major precip event. Again I say "could" because, as you know, weather forecasting has been challenging to say the least these past few months. Here is a look at the forecast larger storm for the weekend of the 11th: My confidence of a major change is due to mounting evidence from a number of fronts. We first talked about the PNA and AO both going negative simultaneously. That should allow some of that Arctic air to slip into our weather pattern instead of the eastern 2/3 of the USA. The biggest change is the shifting of the blocking ridge of high pressure to a more traditional position. This should allow a storm corridor to form: Here is a forecast look for this weekend: As you can see, the blocking ridge of high pressure is in a terrible position. It

I have been checking the weather models, both short and long term. I am starting to see indications that our weather pattern may finally change. I want to make one thing perfectly clear, this is what the EC weather model is saying for the long term. Until the actual weather happens, nothing is guaranteed. However, it does not hurt any of us to have something to look forward to. First let's refer back to my last post. It talked about the PNA and AO. I mentioned atmospheric rivers that bring copious amounts of moisture to our area when both the PNA and AO go negative. The PNA has been negative, however the AO has remained positive. That means cold air, an essential ingredient for large storms, has been trapped in the Arctic by the northern jet. The latest AO forecast has the index moving neutral and then negative. This could bring a very much needed change to our weather. 2013 was the driest year ever for our region. The funny thing about the climate is that averages rarely if ev

San Francisco and most other cities in California will remember 2013 as the driest year ever. Take a look at the following chart: This shows the total rainfall to date and the percentage of normal. San Francisco is among the driest of the dry cities in California. Reno, Carson City and all of Tahoe are experiencing similar numbers. What looked like a decent December a few weeks back has turned dry, like the rest of 2013. Remember the snowy December of 2012. As soon as the year changed, so did the weather. And it hasn't changed back since! We continue to have a ridge of high pressure pushing storms east and north. That trajectory is never good for a major precip event. All of the models and now forecasters are pretty convinced that this pattern will remain in place through the end of 2013. I am starting to hop on that band wagon. However, there is hope. Our biggest, wettest storms have traditionally taken place when a certain condition is present. That condition is a combin

Here is the bad news, this chart is the EC forecast for total precipitation between now and January 13th: The EC weather model is forecasting around a 1/4 inch of liquid precip during our snowiest time of the year. Now the good news; The EC weather model is forecasting around a 1/4 inch of liquid precip during our snowiest time of the year. Yes, that is correct! This weather model along with the other other weather models have been consistently wrong the entire year. When EC has predicted something, long term, the exact opposite has occurred since last January. The exact opposite of no snow is lots of snow. I will keep an eye out and continue reporting to my faithful readers. In the meantime, do not lose hope, not all is lost ... our snow will come, hopefully sooner rather than later. Stay Tuned ...

The well advertised inside slider brought in some very cold air out of Canada and about 4 inches of snow on the eastern front range. That was a pretty productive slider that produced more precip than I had thought possible. The next chance for snow comes in on Saturday. The models are in agreement that a wave will come from the northwest through our area and produce more snow. Here is a look at that storm on late Saturday morning: This is not a very large storm, but every bit helps. The following chart shows the expected total precip for Saturday and Sunday: Right now it looks like around an inch, more west of the lake, less east of the lake. Based on our cold temps I expect this to be all snow for all of Tahoe. The snow to liquid ratio should be high so I am expecting between 8-16 inches of snow ... possibly slightly more. That should be enough for the fine folks at rose to get NW cranked up and start the season. I am tracking a slightly larger storm for next week ar

There is a lot of cold air coming our way. We will get our first taste of winter starting on Tuesday. The leading edge of this cold air looks to be our best chance of snow for the next 10 days or so as our very dry pattern continues. High temperatures will not reach freezing on Wednesday and will probably not climb out of the 40's for a couple of weeks. That is the bad news. The good news is the 30 day still looks pretty good. Starting around 12/11 we should start to see the storms make it to our area. EC has been pretty consistent on this December event so keep the faith. Of course around the 10th, you cold wash your car ... that may help too. Here is a look at the 30 day total precip; remember this is liquid precip. With the colder pattern this could translate into quite a bit of snow by the end of the month. Again, we should see storms showing up on the short term weather models in about a week and the fun could get started around the 11th of December. Stay Tuned ...