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Friday, January 3, 2014

Enjoy This Weather, It Will Change Early Next Week

A series of small systems could come through our area starting next Tuesday. The stormy weather could last through the following weekend with each system getting progressively larger culminating on the 11th with a major precip event. Again I say "could" because, as you know, weather forecasting has been challenging to say the least these past few months. Here is a look at the forecast larger storm for the weekend of the 11th:


My confidence of a major change is due to mounting evidence from a number of fronts. We first talked about the PNA and AO both going negative simultaneously. That should allow some of that Arctic air to slip into our weather pattern instead of the eastern 2/3 of the USA. The biggest change is the shifting of the blocking ridge of high pressure to a more traditional position. This should allow a storm corridor to form:

Here is a forecast look for this weekend:


As you can see, the blocking ridge of high pressure is in a terrible position. It has been there for quite some time and thus our weather has been dry. Now take a look at the forecast for the middle of next week:


The blocking ridge has moved south and west. That should create a storm corridor right through our area. 

DISCLAIMER: This is the EC weather model (most reliable) making these forecasts. I believe there is compelling evidence that perhaps the model has got this right. However, I do not make the weather (God does) nor do I understand the machine that controls our climate (only God does). This blog shows long range forecasts. If you do not want the long range forecast then watch Channel 2, they are very good at telling you what happened yesterday and they almost always get it right. I do this only as a hobby and earn no income. So please take what is written in this blog with a grain of salt!

Let's hope conditions hold true and we can start to bring some much needed snow to the Sierra next week. A further look down the road shows more dry weather, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Stay Tuned ...

2 comments:

  1. How sad that you gotta add the disclaimer. I don't hold anyone responsible for a "forecast". We all live and die by the models, they're better than sticking your head out the door to see what the weather is like, sometimes...Thanks

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  2. Thanks, just reminding everybody that it isn't 100% until it happens.

    ReplyDelete