Tahoe Weather Blog

We are growing more and more confident that winter is here and the storm that is knocking at our door is the first in a series of storms that should deliver copious amounts of snow to both the mountains and valleys. First things first, both the GFS and EC models are in nearly complete alignment with this next storm. The timing looks to start late tomorrow afternoon and last though Wednesday. Then the low crawls out, but not before delivering additional snow on Thursday and Friday. This storm has strengthened and could deliver 1-3 feet of snow to all Tahoe resorts. We are now leaning in the 2-3 feet for Mt. Rose. The potential does exist for more. We have a number of blocking factors that are going to slow these storms down. That will cause them to linger over Tahoe and dump. The next storm is slated for Saturday night and it is large: This is also a much warmer storm that will impact So Cal more than No Cal. Snow levels could hover in the 8,000 foot range with thi

We are tracking a weak to moderate storm for Wednesday the 27th. We will take what we can get after a very slow start to winter. The models are surprisingly in agreement for this storm as it comes in from the NW (much better trajectory) starting very late Tuesday night. It should produce snow all the way to the valley floor and this will be a snow event for all Tahoe resorts at all elevations. Here is a look at the ECMWF forecast for around 10:00 pm Tuesday the 26th: This should be the first in a series of storms that could last into the middle of December or later. Buyer beware, we are looking quite a ways out and the GFS model is much more bullish on some major storms coming our way. We have been talking about this pattern change and it looks like it is nearly upon us. I just read a very interesting post at Unofficial Rose about when the lifts will spin to the top at Mt. Rose. Sven has more information about this than anybody else and I highly encourage you, if you ski/ride

We have a very weak and dry system dropping down off the NW Coast of the US. It will pick up moisture from another weak system that will move in over Southern California. The northern system will drop temperatures, significantly. There is a slight chance of very light snow for the leeward Sierra. The major culprit for our dry weather, is that high pressure system off the west coast. That system has moved out a bit and allowed a nice alleyway for that Low to the north to drop down. But the High is very large and will force that low inland, way too soon. It will make it's way down to our area, but has no moisture tap to speak of. Our moisture will come in from the east so this will be an Eastern Sierra event. It is getting what little moisture it can from another Low Pressure system from the south: This weak system is really nothing but another cold slider, which can be great with a 10 foot base, but this will do little if any good. Mt. Rose could pick up a couple inches of

We are experiencing and will continue to experience a very slow start to winter. Average to above average temperatures should be in place, for the most part, for at least the next couple of weeks. We see little to no precipitation during that time. In fact, we see no significant precipitation until the beginning of December. Of course forecasting that far out can be very unreliable, but see our last post. As the models gather more data and the algorithms to analyze that data become smarter, long term forecasting becomes more accurate. Here is a look at the precip forecast between now and the 2nd of December: This is showing that during the next 3 weeks, Tahoe will pick up a total of less than 1 inch of liquid precip. However, around the 2nd of December we are seeing signs that a storm could move in. Here is a look at the precip total between December 2nd and December 6th: Again, forecasting storms this far out can be very unreliable, so take this with a grain of salt. Th

Assuming that Tahoe winters can begin in mid-October and sometime last through May, this looks to be a very dry start with widely varying temperature swings. It is very difficult to forecast weather for 30 days, but I ran the EC Monthly just this morning and here is what it is saying: Basically, it is forecasting that we are are looking at less than 1 inch of liquid precip between now and November 20th. Most models are calling for a very dry start to winter which is not surprising if you read our Winter Outlook column. Having said all of that, Mother Nature is in charge and not the weather models. I expect this to change somewhat, but we still expect cooler and drier than average precip and temps this winter. A strong and dry cold front will be coming down from Alaska and will drop our temperatures about 40 degrees on Sunday/Monday. Temps will slowly recover in the following week. We expect this pattern to continue. Stay Tuned ...

Long time no post. I hope everybody had an enjoyable summer! Despite our very snowy beginning to 2019, the precip tapered off in the spring and especially in the summer. The tinder was not quite as plentiful and we also were very lucky to have a reduced fire season. We have several very cold storms headed our way over the next several days, which will produce some precip for Northern California, that should continue to dampen the fires that are currently burning. We will also see off and on snow ranging from 6,000-8,000 feet in both the Sierra and Carson Ranges. However, temperatures will eventually warm up and most of that snow will melt. If anything looks serious, we will post, but for now, fairly typical September weather. 2019/2010 Winter Outlook With El Nino all but a forgotten memory, we have moved into a neutral ENSO. We have seen how El Nino and his sister La Nina can have a very profound effect on our weather. However, with El Nino gone we will need some other anomali

Do not be fooled by this nice stretch of weather; El Nino is still out there which means the potential for winter storms is still very strong. One such winter storm will show up very early on Thursday morning: This is a very strong storm for this time of year and will usher in a pattern change that will last a week and put our nice stretch of weather far in the rear view mirror. As you can see by the map above, a series of storms is headed our way with the final storm in the series due about a week from today. This pattern change will usher in much cooler and much more unstable air. That means very windy over the course of the next week with snow levels at times approaching 5,500 feet! What is amazing about this pattern change, occurring in the middle of May, is the amount of precip that is coming with it. Here is the precip forecast for the next week. Folks, we could see up to 5 feet of snow in the Western Crest of the High Sierra I believe Slide Mountain will pick