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High Pressure to Block Large Storms

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After a record breaking December, the models are backing off a major weather event next week. A ridge of high pressure is the culprit. We thought that ridge would be moved out, obviously it had other ideas.  Here is the forecast for late on Tuesday January 4th. Notice the ridge of high pressure to the south, that will close the storm door for the Tahoe area: We are looking at 6-12 inches of snow for Mt. Rose Tuesday into Wednesday.  We are seeing much warmer temperatures with high's in the 50's in some valley locations. By the 6th of January, I would expect to see temperature inversions in place as well. This pattern will start around the 6th and should last for at least a week. Stay Tuned ...

Some Clearing Expected Ahead of Massive Storm

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It turns out that Ma Nature does NOT have that great a sense of humor. Sure she sent a snow storm to the Global Warming Summit a few years back, which made it much more difficult for the planet saviors to land their private jets. Imagine the problems with Limos and Tire Chains? Those poor billionaires! I received an email from a person that the ski resorts would soon be suing the oil companies for lack of snow. I simply replied back that therapy must not be working, perhaps medication would be more effective for his condition. Mt. Rose has received over 200 inches of snow in the last 2 weeks and it is still snowing! That is how nature works. In the span of a few weeks we can catch up to our averages. Remember there is no normal when it comes to weather or even climate. Having said all of that, we are seeing an end to this latest storm cycle approaching: Here is the forecast for late Thursday.  We believe the snows will stop by Wednesday morning as this ridge creeps east and provides a

Snow Through Monday, Then a Break ... Then a Possible Massive Storm

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Our current pattern will continue. We are currently approaching 4 feet of snow and expect another 3-5 feet by Monday in the Carson Range. The models are then predicting a break as high pressure moves in starting Tuesday (12/28) and lasting through the 2nd of January. Then things change again. What looks to be a massive storm drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and shoves the ridge back to 160W and opens the door for what could be a major storm. Now things could change, but this is what the 2 most reliable weather models are predicting for January 3rd: Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all, get out and enjoy the perfect mid-winter conditions all around Tahoe.  For updated status of Mt. Rose, see my friend Sven over at Unofficial Rose. Stay Tuned ...

10 More Feet of Snow For Carson Range?

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We are on the eve of an extremely active weather pattern for all of the Tahoe area. In fact, the GFS weather model is predicting in the neighborhood of 10 additional feet of snow for the Carson Range. The ECMWF is talking 8-10 feet. Currently, we have the perfect conditions setting up for a major weather event. Notice the ridge of high pressure way out at 160w. That opens a door for storms to come in from both the north and the south.  Things will get rolling late Tuesday or Early Wednesday morning. That is a bit later than we originally thought (in our last post). However, this storm cycle will last through the year. Here is a look at the forecast for Wednesday Evening (12/22): We should see heavy to moderate mountain snow, with elevations starting just above lake level (that is our best guess). By the time Friday evening (Christmas Eve) rolls around: This wave is much cooler and will spill over into the leeward valleys with accumulating snow. In the mountains, very heavy snow. We bel

Storms Start Up Again Monday

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After 10 feet of snow in the Carson Range and perhaps 20 feet on the Western Crest, we are in for a 3 day break. Then ... Deja Vu all over again. Here is the forecast for Monday night: This is a very interesting storm. It is forecast to hang off the coast for a period of 4 days. Then it will move north and then move back south again. It has a sub-tropical moisture tap and should bring an additional 4-6 feet of snow to the Carson Range next week. Notice the ridge of high pressure way out at sea. That is going to keep the storm door open. After this storm finally moves out, the ridge is so far west and north that we are forecasting a couple of storms slamming into each other shortly after Christmas. One storm will come from the north the other from the south: This is a bit too far off to predict what effect it will have on Tahoe, but needless to say, this could bring in another major weather event. The GFS model has already picked up on these series of events. We are seeing high pressure

Stormy Pattern to Continue Through Christmas (at least)

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This latest storm which is actually located just off the coast in Northern Washington, continues to pummel the Sierra. Right now it looks like this storm will clear out sometime Tuesday afternoon. But there is another storm right on its heels. Here is a look at forecast for early Thursday (12/16): This is a faster moving storm but should remain cold and should produce all snow for all Tahoe ski resorts. Between Friday and Tuesday (12/21) we will see several short waves bring additional snow to the area. Then, because Ma Nature hates when forecasters make generalizations, like it is going to be a dry winter because of La Nina (not us), she has decided to bring a storm in from the South: Our ridge of high pressure has pushed to 160W which should keep the storm door open at the time of year when the storms are the strongest. Here is the precip forecast for the next 10 days. Looks like the entire Sierra is in line for 8-10 feet of additional snowfall, while the western crest could be looki

Stormy Pattern to Continue with Much Stronger Storms

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If we can learn a lesson about how Mother Nature works, it is that unusual weather is an oxymoron, while at the same time it is the only thing "normal". We avoid using the word normal, because there is nothing normal about weather. That is why we have averages. Enough philosophy. We have moved from a very warm dry pattern into a very cool wet pattern, seemingly overnight. We see no end in sight to this pattern. The next storm comes in early tomorrow and it will be even cooler: The EC model is more bullish on this next storm. Then the big storm comes in early on Sunday (12/12) morning. It will receive several re-enforcing shots of cold air and will tap into a sub-tropical moisture stream.  It will be giving us moderate to heavy precip for around 60 hours as here is the forecast for Tuesday (12/14) morning: You can see what happens when that ridge of high pressure is shoved west to around 150-155. A storm door is opened right to our front step. We believe that after this potent