Stormy Pattern to Continue with Much Stronger Storms

If we can learn a lesson about how Mother Nature works, it is that unusual weather is an oxymoron, while at the same time it is the only thing "normal". We avoid using the word normal, because there is nothing normal about weather. That is why we have averages. Enough philosophy.

We have moved from a very warm dry pattern into a very cool wet pattern, seemingly overnight. We see no end in sight to this pattern.

The next storm comes in early tomorrow and it will be even cooler:

The EC model is more bullish on this next storm.

Then the big storm comes in early on Sunday (12/12) morning. It will receive several re-enforcing shots of cold air and will tap into a sub-tropical moisture stream. 

It will be giving us moderate to heavy precip for around 60 hours as here is the forecast for Tuesday (12/14) morning:

You can see what happens when that ridge of high pressure is shoved west to around 150-155. A storm door is opened right to our front step.

We believe that after this potent storm, that our stormy weather will continue, probably through the end of the year. However, let's qualify this. When a large storm passes through, oftentimes that can change the entire pattern. We don't see that happening, but there is some precedent here.

Finally, here is what we are looking at for total, liquid precipitation over the next week or so:

In our last post we published the GFS precip forecast, this is the European (ECMWF). We are still looking at 4-8 feet of snow for Mt. Rose in the next week. 

Stay Tuned ...