Tahoe Weather Blog

That headline says it all. The next storm is due to show up in Tahoe in about 84 hours or 3.5 days. Around Sunday at 4, the storm should arrive. Here is a look at the EC weather forecast for Sunday at 4:00pst: The models are in nearly complete agreement about this storm. Unfortunately for us on the Carson side of the Sierra, the bulk of this storm will not make it to us, so this will be a fairly minor event. I am thinking at most 6-12 inches for the Carson Range, probably though in the 3-5 inch range. The western crest, north of the Lake Tahoe could be looking at as much as 2 feet. Here is the precip total forecast: This storm does not have near the moisture plume to work with as the last storm. However, that should keep the snow levels much lower. The last storm stayed at 10,000 feet for the first half of the event or we would have seen much more snow, especially in the Carson range. Looking a bit further down the line, this is the only event forecast for at least the next

I think this satellite picture says it all. Our storm has tapped into a moisture plume that stretches nearly to Hawaii (mini-pineapple expresss). Expect the storm to continue today. Snow levels will drop to the valley floor with little or no accumulation. However, I still expect the Mt. Rose ski area to pick up around 18 inches of base making, Sierra Cement. Temperatures will rapidly drop throughout today, A cold slider will come in late tomorrow/Wednesday that could produce additional snow for the Carson Range. The long range is forecasting this pattern to continue. Add El Nino influence starting mid-December and we could be looking at quite a winter in Tahoe. Many of the forecasters continue to warn of dire consequences when the storm machine really gets cranking. Remember, El Nino is warm and if you get a large snow pack to rapidly melt, that water goes down to the population areas. Be prepared. Stay Tuned ...

I apologize for lateness of this post, however I have been out of town and only returned yesterday. Looking at the latest model runs, I am most pleased by the amount of moisture the current storm appears to be tapping into, especially when it gets here. Here is a look a the latest run of the EC, for tomorrow: As this storm approaches, it will pick up moisture from the south. The model runs appear to be leaning toward the possibility of even a larger precipitation event. Also, this storm has plenty of spillover which bodes well for both the Carson Range and the leeward valleys from Reno through Carson. Here is a look at the current precip forecast, remember the models have been increasing moisture with each run, so our confidence is pretty high with this one: Not the most impressive storm ever, but certainly much better than what was being forecast 10 days ago. As far as snow levels, get used to this; this is a warm storm pulling moisture from the south. Snow levels will

First, let me apologize to my loyal readers. Generally when  you see that I posted that means a storm in on the horizon ... good times. Well, I keep hearing that a storm is coming next week and I want to set the record straight. From here on in, when you see the Tahoe Weather Blog posted in your inbox, you will know that I am seeing something. The question of the day, will Mt. Rose Open next week? In two words, probably not. Despite the first storm of the year coming in from the west, it is doubtful that this event will produce snow, let alone significant snow. The models are surprisingly consistent on this one. First a small system will approach from the west and track north. This system will not bring any precip to the Tahoe area. The next system should arrive next Wednesday. This is a larger system, but will break up and then head north. We will see cloudiness, but at this time, very little if any chance for measurable precip, especially on this side of the lake. Just because

Just a quick update. I want to expand upon what I was saying last post. El Nino is the real deal this year and should have a major impact on precipitation for most of California this winter. After a slight decline, another Kelvin Wave pushed El Nino into nearly uncharted waters. If you look at last post, only two years have compared with this El Nino. This El Nino could be stronger. The one variable that was not in play during 82/83 & 97/98 were the extremely warm California coastal waters. Most experts believe this will add to the extreme weather effects that have been associated with El Nino's similar to this one. Here is what impresses me; The forecast peak of this El Nino will come right in the heart of our rainy season. Take a look at the latest chart from NOAA below. If we hit some of those upper outliers, we are talking about an event previously unseen. Stay Tuned ...

After four years of drought, most of California is under a water emergency. However, we are seeing indications that at least some relief is in sight for the short run and the long run. First, let's get some facts straight; California is mostly a desert. The drought stricken areas along the southern coast are deserts that have been radically over populated by man. We have decimated the geography by covering it in concrete and planting thousands of different varieties of non-indigenous plants. We have polluted the air and ground. In short, man has not been good to this area and there is no argument for that. The weather in this area is so nice in both the winter and summer that it is a very highly desirable place to live. Extended dry periods in deserts are not that uncommon. However, when you have over 30 million people living there they tend to be catastrophic. The San Francisco Bay area is not much different. It gets more annual rainfall (on average) than Southern California,

We are in a very strange weather pattern indeed! It has been raining for a couple of weeks in the desert, snowing in the higher elevations. Ironically, this pattern is from a series of low pressure systems that occupy the entire west right now. The real culprit is a strong storm centered near the four corners region. This storm is pulling moist air up from the south and wrapping that moisture around, right into the state of Nevada and much of the west. This storm is near stationary, so expect this pattern to continue through at least tomorrow. Unfortunately, California is being left out of this current event for the most part. When will it end? First, there is a warming trend coming as the Jet dives south and this storm begins to move north and east. However, from what I can see it is in no hurry. So I expect warmer temps (still below average) to move in, but the chance of rain will continue through next Friday, albeit nothing like what we have seen this week. After that, th

In our last post we talked about a potential spring storm for Tahoe. Considering, that storms do not have the power this time of year that they posses in December and January, we have a moderate size storm knocking on the door. Not much has changed since my last post as the models have held true for some decent precip coming to the Sierra and Carson range starting tomorrow and then picking up steam around midday on Tuesday. Here is the latest from EC for around midday Tuesday: I know, this looks like the same forecast I gave about a week ago, the only difference is that this is the latest model run. There are parts of the Western Crest of the Sierra that will pick up 2-3 feet of snow from these series of storms. I believe the Carson range (Mt. Rose) could should pick up 1-2 feet of snow by Wednesday night. As a disclaimer, the NWS is calling for much less snow. However, considering the latest model runs and the cold air associated with these storms (snow levels @ 5,000 feet),

Both EC and GFS weather models are suggesting a major spring storm could hit the Tahoe area in a little more than a week. Both models are suggesting that our first decent storm cycle in over a month is on the way for the last week of skiing at most of the Tahoe resorts. This is not, by any means, unprecedented. In fact, this has been one of the worst springs in recent memory for storms. Large April storms are the rule not the exception. Most years are good for at least one and if you believe the weather models, a storm could be on the way. Here is a look at the EC model forecast for the 7th of April: The GFS model is showing a remarkably similar forecast. Here is a look at the precip potential for this storm: Interestingly enough, the GFS has a series of storms coming in starting early next weekend and getting progressively stronger. These models have been teasing us all year with storms that do not live up to their potential. Under achieving storms, so beware. It is

A weak storm will gain some strength, come down from the north and should leave the Tahoe area with some accumulating snow. However, there will be a rain shadow at the crest which will limit accumulation in the Carson range. Here is a look at the forecast for very early Monday morning: Here is a look at the precip forecast. Most of the precip stays west of the Sierra: I am not seeing any weather anomalies headed our and we should move to dry pattern starting Tuesday afternoon. The Western Crest of the Sierra could pick up 6-12 inches by Tuesday afternoon while the Carson range will be limited to 1-4 inches. Stay Tuned ...

If you read my last post, you were disappointed with the storm that passed through our area yesterday. The storms are just too weak to cause much havoc, which is not totally unusual for this time of year. However, I know I am beating a dead horse, we are so due that I have been fully expecting something extraordinary. Well folks, it does not look like it is in the cards. There are a few very weak disturbances that will pass through in the next 10 days, but nothing much. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, the weather has been very difficult to forecast these last few years. Oftentimes these weak storms can pick up some moisture or get blocked out by something thousands of miles away, and then everything can change. So let's hope that happens. If it does, you will know ahead of time. Stay Tuned ...