Tahoe Weather Blog

You do not need me to tell you that we have a very strong ridge of high pressure setup right off the coast of California and it is bringing us very warm and sunny weather ... for now. We are starting to see signs of another wet pattern forming and effecting the Tahoe area starting about a week from today (3/20). The storm track is from the south and everything is going right around our ridge of high pressure. However, as that breaks down that storm track is going to go straight through Tahoe. Seeing how we will be in late March when the storms arrive, do not expect anything like what we saw in January. Having said that, our weather pattern will change, moisture will come our way and temperatures will drop. The storms will come in fairly dry on Monday, but by Tuesday at noon we are looking at this: These storms should continue to hit our area for 3-5 days (maybe more, too far out to call). However, I see some shadowing, which is often the case this time of year, so the Carson R

A very cold and fast moving system will drop out of the north and dump snow in the Sierra and leeward valleys of Nevada. This system will bring much cooler air and very strong winds. I expect about 36 hour period of light to moderate snowfall to fall on the Sierra and Carson Range. At the peak of the storm which will be Sunday morning here is a look: This is nothing like what we say in January and February. However, with the much cooler temps I do expect a hefty dumping of much lighter snow than we saw in those storms. Here is a look at the precip forecast: I think we could be talking about 18-36 inches by Monday for Mt. Rose, heavier amounts on the west side of the lake. This storm will quickly clear out and temps will rise into the 50's under high pressure by weeks end. Stay Tuned ...

This is a quick update to the forecast. This next storm's trajectory is now almost straight out of the north. That completely cuts off the moisture tap we have seen for the past couple of months. We no longer see any type of major precip event. In fact, we are now forecast 3-6 inches of snow for the Carson range Sunday night into early Monday morning. However, expect strong winds on Sunday ahead of the front and much colder air starting Monday, with a return to average temps by Thursday. Looking ahead, we see no major weather events for the next 10 days. Stay Tuned ...

As the cold front passed through last night, it severed the line of warm moist air to Tahoe. As a result, it looks now like we may receive an extended break, with the exception of a fast moving, much cooler storm that is on tap for this weekend. The original model runs showed a much better moisture tap. Now, this storm's trajectory is much more out of the north and I do not see a major weather event like what we have witnessed over the last couple of months. Once this storm moves out, high pressure will take over for at least 4-5 days. The storm will arrive Sunday afternoon and be gone by Monday at noon. Here is a quick look at the forecast for Sunday evening: This is a much cooler storm than we have seen in quite some time, so I look for higher snow ratios. In fact, I still see around 2 feet of very light powder for Mt. Rose on Monday. While the other side of the lake could see double that in some places particularly at the Sierra Crest. Here is what we are looking at i

Averages have a way of catching up. We have been saying that for years. Last year we shifted from an extremely dry pattern to an average winter. That trend told us, that those averages were going to start catching up, this year. That is why we predicted an above average snowfall year. We had no idea! This latest storm continues to pound Northern California and the Sierra. It will continue until Wednesday morning then we will have a short drying out. Here is a look at the current conditions: As this latest storm moves inland, it will give way to a drier period. That will last until Saturday afternoon when the next system moves in. That system can be clearly seen along with its path straight to California. Those two storms will eventually become one larger storm. Again, that storm will have a very large moisture tap. Here is a look at the forecast for next Saturday afternoon: Currently, the models are not showing another massive moisture event. However, the scales ha

The party gets going again around noon on Thursday. A massive storm which is centered well to our north will spin up at least 5 smaller storms and throw them right into the entire state of California, including Tahoe. Like we have seen for the last month and a half, these storms have plenty of subtropical moisture to work with.  Here is the forecast for Thursday at noon: As these storms tap into the subtropical moisture, they will come in warm. As they exit they will pull down cooler air ... until the next system arrives. So look for around 8,000 feet on this first storm, with snow levels coming down to around 5,500 feet as we get on the back side. Then, late Friday night, we have a split condition. The storm will split with the moisture tap partially broken for Tahoe, but on full display for Central and Southern California: The next storm shows up around Sunday at noon. This storm will pull more air from the north and less from the south, which means fa

The strongest winds of the season are heading our way. They will start up tonight and continue into the afternoon tomorrow. Ridge top winds will exceeed 150mph, while downslope winds for the leeward foothills could see gusts in excess of 100 mph. The next big wave of moisture will start up tomorrow afternoon and with it we will have falling snow levels. I expect Mt. Rose to pick up all snow starting tomorrow afternoon. I expect an additional 2-4 feet of snow by Friday evening. Here is a look at the forecast for tomorrow @ noon: By the time Saturday afternoon rolls around, we will be in the sunshine with above average temps through next Thursday. Then everything changes back! We are tracking several large storms that appear headed right at Tahoe. Here is a look at the forecast for the 16th of February: More impressive is the pattern that is setting up, with a massive storm to the north spinning off waves of smaller storms and sending them straight through Tahoe: The

The biggest change in our forecast certainly has to do with the snow levels. First of all, take a look at what we can expect tomorrow: This storm is packed with moisture. It is arriving on the heels of our last storm so we will continue to see moisture and wind until about next Friday afternoon. This moisture is coming straight from Hawaii and with it will come some very warm air. Much warmer than what we forecast last week. Although snow levels will probably not get much above 8,000 feet, we could see a period of rain on half of Slide Mountain. This is a pure pineapple express, here is a look at the Pineapple Express in its purest form: Pinpointing exact snow levels is very difficult, we believe 8,000 is pretty much as high as the rain will get for any sustained period. However, we could be way off too. If we see rain at 10,000 feet, things could get dicey, especially with all the moisture packed into this storm. I wish I could tell you with certainty what will happen at wha

Here is a look at the current conditions in the Northern Pacific: The current storm should continue to pound us off and on through the night and then to a lesser degree tomorrow and tomorrow night. The Next storm can be seen on the picture above. It will follow a nearly identical path and bring more moisture to the area. Then, on the heels of that storm, another storm will gain strength and follow the nearly identical path. There is copious amounts of moisture in the sub-tropical Pacific for these storms to tap into. I see snow elevations moving down slightly but staying between 5,500 and 7,500 feet. Here is the forecast timing of these events: Early Monday Morning (3:00am) This is the beginning of the second storm of the three we talked about earlier. This will last throughout the day on Monday. We will get a very short break around 2:00am Tuesday morning until about noon on Tuesday, then the same storm will send us a huge wave of moisture. 4:00 Tuesday Afternoon

If you read our post from a couple of days ago, we talked about two storms. The first of the storms arrives Thursday. That storm looks to be strengthening and will deliver more moisture than we originally anticipated. The 2nd storm looked like it was going to head north of us. That storm now has moved considerably south, and is packed with moisture. It is coming sooner than we anticipated and should arrive very early Monday morning just as our first storm is exiting. Folks, this is starting to look like one of those weeks we had in January. I expect copious amounts of snow to fall in the Sierra and Carson Range, with significant rain hitting the leeward valleys, as much as 1-4 inches depending on your location. Here is a look at the forecast for early Monday morning: This storm has moved so far south that it will have a large effect on Central and parts of Southern California as well. Here is the new total precip forecast: All of the Sierra and Carson range are in th

High Pressure is dominating our weather with deep valley inversions and beautiful warm mountain days. That is going to come to an end on Thursday morning as a decent sized storm moves in from the west and will bring moderate precipitation to the Sierra and Carson Range. Then, after that storm moves out, an even bigger system it going to move into the area in about 8 days. That system may move north of us, too soon to tell. Here is a look at the first system very early Friday morning when the peak of the precipitation begins: This system will hang around and deliver moderate to heavy precip until around noon on Saturday. Snow levels will start low, rise to around 7,500 feet and then drop as we get on the backside of the front. I do not see any accumulating snow below 6,000 feet. However, we will almost certainly see some rain in the valleys. The higher and further west you are, the more rain you will get. I see the leeward foothills picking up close to an inch. The next system

Not much has changed from our forecast. We have 3 storms heading our way. These storms will NOT produce the same amount of precip as that last batch, however they are much cooler and will bring snow all the way to the valley floor. First, here is a look at the storm track: These next 3 storms are taking aim at the Tahoe area. The first storm, will start out a little warmer, but will set the table for the other two storms by pulling cooler air in from the north. Here is a look at the latest forecast for Wednesday afternoon as the storm approaches: The next storm comes in on the heels of this storm, here is a look at very early Friday morning: The last storm in the bunch shows up around Sunday at noon. These storm are coming back to back to back and we will see nearly constant mountain snow above 7,000 feet to start and then lower as that first storm makes its way through. That snow will last nearly an entire week. Precip totals are about what we were predicting with

On any other day of any other year we would be talking about a very active storm cycle that will be arriving on Wednesday. However, after 20 feet of snow in just over 8 days it is very difficult to call any storm large again! Having said that, we have a very active weather pattern heading to Tahoe, starting on Wednesday afternoon and lasting for at least a week. These are cooler storms, do not have as much moisture to work with and are moving faster. However, there are at least 3 storms that we are tracking and they will arrive on the heals of their predecessor. First the details: Wednesday Noon through Thursday night (1/18) Friday Noon through Sunday (1/20) Monday Night through Wednesday (1/23) Snow Elevation Right now, it looks like these storms are going to be all snow above 7,000 feet. Each storm will be progressively warmer. I look for snow elevations of the first storm to start around lake level. Impressive at any other time but this one, here are the forecast

Here is all you need to know, there is still a tremendous connection between very warm, moist sub tropical air and Tahoe. Any storm that drops down out of the north is going to tap into that moisture and the storms we have been seeing, may well continue. As this storm winds down on Thursday, we are actually going to see a 4-5 day break. However, we are tracking two large storms. We are still a ways out, so anything can happen, but the models have been scary accurate during this period. Here is a look at the forecast for next Wednesday: This storm is tapping into that moisture plume we are talking about. It will hang around and deliver several waves of very heavy moisture. Right now, we are looking at all snow above 7,000. This storm is born in the north and should bring enough cold air with it, to bring snow levels to reasonable elevation. We say 7,000 now, but that could change. Next, on the heels of this storm is a massive storm, again born in the north but could be a bit