Here is all you need to know, there is still a tremendous connection between very warm, moist sub tropical air and Tahoe. Any storm that drops down out of the north is going to tap into that moisture and the storms we have been seeing, may well continue.
As this storm winds down on Thursday, we are actually going to see a 4-5 day break. However, we are tracking two large storms. We are still a ways out, so anything can happen, but the models have been scary accurate during this period.
Here is a look at the forecast for next Wednesday:
This storm is tapping into that moisture plume we are talking about. It will hang around and deliver several waves of very heavy moisture. Right now, we are looking at all snow above 7,000. This storm is born in the north and should bring enough cold air with it, to bring snow levels to reasonable elevation. We say 7,000 now, but that could change.
Next, on the heels of this storm is a massive storm, again born in the north but could be a bit warmer:
Folks, this looks a lot like a hurricane! The winds on the back end of this would ruin your day if you happened to be on a boat in the Pacific!
Real Flooding Concerns
With all the moist, sub-tropical and unstable air in the Pacific, coupled with massive snow packs in the Sierra and Carson Range, we have a very dangerous combination. The snowpack above 10,000 feet, is in a record breaking range with all the massive storms we have had since the beginning of October. Thankfully, some of the heaviest precip has fallen as rain below 8,000 feet. However, if we were to see a very warm storm that came in at 10,000 to 11,000 feet, capable of delivering the moisture we have seen this season, we could be talking about flooding on a biblical scale (only a slight exaggeration here).
Unofficial Mt. Rose
If you are not a regular visitor of this site, you should be. Sven, lives up in the Carson Range around 7,400 feet. His reports on current conditions are unbelievable. His pictures tell a story all their own. He also reports on avalanche danger and what to do and what not to do in the back country (BC). Sven is certainly one of the foremost experts at winter mountaineering (and summer). For your own safety and education (and entertainment), go to this site and learn. The picture of the Kirkwood slide will scare the heck out of you!
Stay Tuned ...