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Storms start on New Years day and Continue for Ten Days

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We just got the latest ECMWF model run and it looks good. As usual, not all news is good news. The storms are increasing in intensity and frequency, that is the good news. However, they will start out very warm, with snow levels around 8,500-9,000 feet ... or maybe even higher. Here is what we are seeing: New Years Day 2026 Very warm storm for New Years with snow levels above most Tahoe ski resorts. A good deal of the precip will be in the Central Sierra. We do not see a major amount for Tahoe, which is good because the snow levels will be around 9,000 feet. Notice to the west the very cold air, that will play into the next, strong storm. Saturday January 3rd, 2026 This is a much colder and stronger storm. Snow levels will plummet to below 6,000 feet so it will be all snow for all Tahoe resorts at all elevations; Sunday January 4th, 2026 This storm continues with a reenforcing storm just off shore. Snow levels could approach the valley floor, however there will be a rain shadow, so not...
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Two Storms to Kickoff the New Year

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This past storm cycle was an underachiever. Usually, when the models go big, the storms cannot produce. In this case we tallied around 5 feet, which was slightly less than what the models were predicting. Of course the models learn the error of their ways. We have a couple storms that will setup very similar to this last pattern; colliding air masses from the North and South. However, this time the models have tempered down their prediction. Here is what we are seeing; Saturday 1/3 This storm really begins lat on the first. It looks like next Saturday could be a very stormy day. Snow levels could be as high as 7,500 feet. Wednesday 1/7 This is a ways out but is following a similar pattern and another warm storm. What we are seeing for precip in the next 2 weeks: If this holds true, Mt. Rose could be looking at another 3-5 feet. Let's hope they are under projecting this time! Stay Tuned ...
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Pattern Changed, Now Comes the Big Storms

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Pretty much everybody has noticed that we went from stable high pressure to very unstable low pressure with 40 mph straight line winds and gusts exceeding 80 in the leeward foothills. Sitting just offshore is the first of several large and very wet storms poised to bury the Tahoe area. The first storm is literally just moving in now (16:00 - Sunday): This storm is going to stall out and bring heavy snow above 7,000 feet. We believe this will be all snow for Mt. Rose at all elevations. This will last through tomorrow late afternoon. Then we will get a slight break in the weather before a much larger storm pounds Tahoe starting late Tuesday night and lasting through the 26th. The heaviest snow will be Christmas day and could drop all the way to the valley floor. Suffice it to say this will be all snow for all Tahoe ski areas. By the time it tappers off we are looking at around 4-8 feet of snow for the Carson Range. Some areas west of Lake Tahoe could see double that amount. This is far l...
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Pattern Change Starts Now

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A major change in our weather pattern is underway. As we reported in our last post, gradually the storms will get bigger and wetter. One change is a large cold front will drop down out of Alaska and plunge us in the deep freeze the day after Christmas through that week. We are still expecting a major weather event with some areas of the Western Crest of the Sierra picking up 20+ inches of liquid precipitation. Here is what we are seeing: Wednesday 12/17 Storm beginning to move south. Early Saturday Morning (12/20) Subtropical connection being established. There is a large cold front to the north and a warm front to the south. They are going to collide and stall right over Tahoe. Midday Sunday (12/21) Monday ( 12/22) Christmas Eve - Wednesday (12/24) Storm moves up from the south, slams Tahoe and most of California. Christmas Day - Thursday (12/25) Major Sierra Snow Storm. Notice the cold front to the north. Saturday (12/27) Champagne Powder! We are seeing a possible dynamic for the beg...
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Historic Dry Period to end Next Week in Tahoe

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This has been the slowest start to winter in the Northern Sierra in the last 40 years. That makes it historic. However, Ma Nature does not deliver precipitation in evenly spaced events. Instead, she messes with us. Just when we are thinking the ski season is lost .... BOOM ... she delivers historic storms! Or so it seems. The good news is that this historically slow start to winter is about to come an abrupt end. The pattern will begin to change mid-week, around the 17th. We are going to get a series of storms that will be progressively larger than the previous ... just like old times! Here is a synopsis: Wednesday December 17th This is a weak storm but it is just the beginning. We have a couple of strong storms, especially to the North that will take that ridge of high pressure and move it South. Friday December 19th This is a much stronger storm with a great moisture connection to the subtropical Pacific. What we really like about this ensemble is that it is going to stall and bring ...
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Slow Pattern Change in a Week; Shortly After the New Year, Major Changes Possible

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For you skiers and riders, we are continually looking for storms. Because this is a long range weather forecasting service, most of you are depending on us to let you know when this historical dry and warm period will come to a screeching halt. Suffice it to say, it will come to a screeching halt. Let's start with the near term as we have a couple of weak storms that will make it into our area in about a week: Clearly the storms are growing in size. Our problem is the persistent ridge in the Jet Stream that is forcing everything north.  That appears to be at least weakening.The storms for the week of the 14th are not game changing they are showing a change in the pattern. Then around the 19th of December we finally have a decent precipitation event. It will still be warm, but should be all snow for Mt. Rose: Again, not a game changer but further evidence that winter will be arriving, just late. Speaking of winter, the solstice comes up the 21st of December and our days start gettin...
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It is a Ways Off, but Pattern Change in Sight

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 Here is what we have been looking at for most of November and all of December: A huge ridge in the Jet Stream is sending storms well north of us and well north of the US. Of course we know this cannot last forever and Ma Nature oftentimes comes back with a vengeance. Although we are not seeing any storms in particular for Tahoe, the storms are beginning to move further south into the Pacific NW as the pattern slowly changes We are looking at the pattern shifting in about 9 days. After that we are hoping a few big storms spin up and set their sights on Tahoe, until then, do your rain dance! Stay Tuned ...
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