Tahoe Weather Blog

We have series of low pressure systems off the West Coast. They are somewhat stalled but are slowly moving into BC. That will pull very warm air up to the Tahoe area. With that warm air will be lots of moisture. That will create an AR event for Tahoe, although not what we originally thought. That event will also have snow levels hovering around 9,000 feet. Here is a look at Monday (2/23) afternoon: Notice a couple of things. First the stream of moisture coming up from the Tropics. Second, the line of warm and cold air (blue and red lines). Now take a look at late Tuesday evening: Notice how far north the warm air has moved. Combine that with warm, moist air from the tropics and you have very high snow levels for the Sierra. Then high pressure moves in.  It stays well above seasonal average until the first week in March, when another pattern change could develop. Stay Tuned ...

After somewhere between 3-5 feet for the Sierra, the sun is shining in the leeward valley. Do not let that fool you, we are just getting started. The next wave moves in late tonight through tomorrow and then the biggest wave is on tap for this weekend. After that last storm, which is really several storms combined, we see an extended warm and dry period. Here is the forecast: Thursday 2/19 Not as wet as the first wave but still should produce significant moisture. Sunday 2/22 morning These 3 storms are going to converge right over Tahoe ... Tuesday 2/24 Classic AR event (Atmospheric River). We are right on the line between warm and cold air. Following this storm a cold front will move down but will clear out quickly giving way to warm dry air. Up on Mt. Rose we are looking at an additional 3-5 feet ... at least. If you want to see a huge mess, we believe there will be fairly significant rain for the leeward valleys on top of 8-24 inches of snow that has already fallen. Stay Tuned ...

As our persistent ridge gets moved out in the Pacific, the storm door is wide open. With La Nina in the rearview mirror, expect more frequent and weaker storms. In the end, expect more snow in the Sierra. Starting next Sunday (2/15), we will see a series of storms over the next 10 days. Here is a look at the forecast moving forward: Monday 2/16 Look how far out to see our high pressure ridge has moved. That will allows the storms to move down the coast and tap into sub tropical moisture. Tuesday 2/17 This one is all snow for all Tahoe Resorts as the cold front moves down. Weak moisture tap but the storm does stall somewhat. Thursday 2/19 Another smaller storm, but cold should bring good POW to the Sierra. Friday 2/20 Ridge of high pressure is expanding, but only temporarily.  Sunday 2/22 Ridge shoved back, should allow larger storms to come in. Wednesday 2/25 Obviously, this is a ways out, but could be a major Sierra blizzard with a great combination of cold air and warm moist air....

After weeks of beautiful, warm and stable weather, we are finally seeing the beginning of a pattern change. We talked about our persistent ridge of high pressure being shoved out to sea which could open a storm door. The models are now starting to agree with us. First things first: Say goodbye to the warm weather as a cold front will begin to move down the coast on Sunday night. That will lead to a slider like system on tap for late Monday and Tuesday. This storm could have some potential as the GFS model is much more aggressive than the more reliable ECMWF. In any event Tuesday is the day when we finally see some snow in the Sierra. As can clearly be seen by the above chart, the Central Sierra will do much better with this storm. However, what can also be seen is a weakening ridge of high pressure. That ridge will move back into a blocking position but around the 15th, it will be shoved back out to sea which will open the storm door for what should be several days of snow in the Tahoe...

The dissipation of cooler waters along the Equatorial Pacific (La Nina) is happening quicker than expected. As we move into a neutral ENSO, look for a change in the pattern. Possibly around the last week in February, hopefully sooner. This particular La Nina delivered only a single impressive storm cycle, and thank goodness it did! So waving goodbye to La Nina is cause for celebration. A neutral ENSO should allow the storm machine to start cranking and knock our persistent ridge of high pressure out of its current position off the West Coast of the USA. We are starting to see what could amount to a change in the pattern, although currently we are not seeing any major storms for the next 2 weeks at least. Here is a look at the forecast for 9th of February. A cold front drops down but has no moisture tap. Then around the 14th we are seeing the Ridge get shoved West, which could open the storm door for Tahoe, finally! Again, not seeing any major storms but what we are seeing is the possib...

As La Nina continues to deepen, so does our dry weather. Generally, we only write columns to talk about future weather pattern changes. However, I noticed a number of forecasters were predicting a return to winter weather next weekend. We are not seeing that. In fact as the Polar Vortex digs deep into the central part of the country, our weather will be above seasonal averages for the most part with high pressure sitting off the coast and blocking everything. Lake Tahoe is west of Los Angeles. That helps a lot when these deep high pressure systems dominate the country, we are outside their influence of bitter cold air. However, we are seeing what should amount to a pattern change. That is the good news. The bad news is that this pattern change is still a few weeks out. As our persistent ridge of high pressure begins to break down, expect things to change. That appears to be occurring around the 30th of January. Of course, predicting weather 2 weeks out comes with risk. We will keep an ...