Pattern Slowly Changing

After weeks of beautiful, warm and stable weather, we are finally seeing the beginning of a pattern change. We talked about our persistent ridge of high pressure being shoved out to sea which could open a storm door. The models are now starting to agree with us.

First things first: Say goodbye to the warm weather as a cold front will begin to move down the coast on Sunday night. That will lead to a slider like system on tap for late Monday and Tuesday. This storm could have some potential as the GFS model is much more aggressive than the more reliable ECMWF. In any event Tuesday is the day when we finally see some snow in the Sierra.

As can clearly be seen by the above chart, the Central Sierra will do much better with this storm.

However, what can also be seen is a weakening ridge of high pressure. That ridge will move back into a blocking position but around the 15th, it will be shoved back out to sea which will open the storm door for what should be several days of snow in the Tahoe area.

Storms this time of year are not as strong and we will certainly see some shadowing taking place. However we are expecting at least several feet of snow for the Carson Range and perhaps double that on the Western Shore. Both these storms are very cold and will be all snow for all Tahoe resorts.

Here is the precipitation forecast:

This is pretty dynamic and therefore will certainly change, we will keep an eye on it and report accordingly.

Stay Tuned ...