Decent Storm for Friday and Saturday - Nino Coming Back mid-February

Another decent sized storm is headed our way starting Thursday night and lasting through Saturday. There are a series of very weak disturbances that will come through leading up to this event. First here is a moisture chart for this weekends storm:


Most of the Sierra is poised to receive 1.5 to 3 inches of liquid precip. I should say this is the GFS model, which consistently under predicts moisture totals. My gut tells me the storm will produce around 18-36 inches of snow for most of the Tahoe Sierra, with a larger band down around Kirkwood.

Here is a look at the storm as it approaches Thursday night. It is a decent sized storm coming ashore to our north:

As it looks today, the best time to hit the pow will be on Saturday. But conditions should be excellent Friday through Monday, especially in the back country. Keep an eye on the avalanche conditions before setting out. You can check them here:

Sierra Avalanche Center

Looking longer range, the models are starting to point at a possible El Nino related event starting around the 15th of February and lasting for at least another week. This has a series of very strong storms coming into our area (much stronger than this weekends storm) similar to the Nino event we experienced a few weeks ago. I will keep a close eye on this one.

Stay tuned ...