The storm I talked about last weekend has arrived and is knocking on the door. It is currently located about 500 miles west of Oregon. It will continue to move east until it hits the coast and then head south down the coast until it swings inland Sunday into Monday. The models are not totally in agreement with this system. There is a chance it could split with the bulk of the energy going down to the south central Sierra. However I am going to go out on a limb and predict this storm holds together and comes into the Sierra somewhere between Tahoe and Mammoth. This is not a huge storm but will produce some pretty decent precipitation in the Sierra just in time for Nevada spring break. The Accumodel shows about 1-2 inches of liquid precip for the Tahoe Sierra, with some areas around Mammoth receiving 2+ inches:
I believe the storm will move slightly north and bring about 1-2 feet of precip to the High Sierra with around a foot for Mt. Rose by late Monday. Here is what the GFS weather model has in store for Sunday at about 5:00pm (right as we are driving over Donner Pass):
As you can clearly see this is not a short wave, but the heart of the system. This pattern will continue.
Spring Like Weather Nowhere In Sight
Looking ahead, things are going to be cold, especially in the Sierra. That means pretty decent skiing/riding conditions for at least the next two weeks. However, if you are waiting for warm temperatures in the 70's or 80's, don't hold your breath. There are a series of cool storms that will be moving through our area for the next couple of weeks and that will keep the valley's cool as well. You were warned almost a year ago about the effects of El Nino. This has been a very cool winter (awesome for skiiers/boarders) and will continue to be a very cool spring. Here is a look at valley temperatures for the next 15 days. Some days, highs will be in the low 40's:
Special Hawaii Forecast
I have a good friend who is vacationing in Hawaii for the next 10 days. He and his family can expect highs in the lower 80's and mostly sunny skies, everyday. There will be a chance for some afternoon showers. The only downside I can see, is it will be windy, especially over the next few days with wind gusts reaching 50mph. So take out that #4 Coconut oil, find a good book and recharge your batteries, as it should be beautiful weather the entire time you are there!