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Sunday, January 8, 2012

12z Model Runs Backtrack From Last 3 Days

Near Term (1-2 Weeks)
I was all set to show you a significant pattern change. Then I took a look at the latest run of the models and could hardly believe my eyes. Yesterday morning, the 3 long range models seemed to be in agreement that 7-9 days would bring cooler, stormier weather to our area. Because the models have been for the most part worthless this year, I decided to take an extra day. Today, the models are all over the place, and from everything that I can see, we will stay in the dry pattern for at least a couple of weeks. The EC model is suggesting around the 20th, our blocking ridge of high pressure could be shoved south and west, however GFS keeps the ridge in place and all the cold air well to our north. This is extremely frustrating as this weather pattern has been in place since the middle of October. At least for now it is only showing faint signs of changing. Even if we do get a change, it will only be small storms for the area. The reason? MJO (Merridian-Julian Oscillation). We have not made it to the late stages of this pattern since October and we seem to keep falling south before the storms can make there way to the Pacific. This kills our moisture tap and limits how big the storms can  be. All of this is unprecedented since we started keeping records.

Storms moving south out of Indian Ocean. No moisture tap, no energy to bust us out of this pattern



Long Term
I still believe that the storms will return. We could move into a strong La Nina this spring. That will transition to El Nino for next winter (Yes I am already talking about next winter). Of course the experts predicted El Nino for this winter about this time last year and were dead wrong. Their confidence is higher this year.

If you are not beyond snow dancing you may want to go there. This stubborn pattern looks to be around for a while still. However, rest assured, I will continue to look for signs of change and bring them to you when they come ... and they will come.

Here is a picture from Mt. Tallac taken by a friend at 7:45am this morning:

Tahoe In January? Say It Aint So!


Stay Tuned ...

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