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Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Favorable Pattern For Good Healthy Dump


As you know, I have  been tracking a number of variables for the past couple of months. Not the least of which is the cold air bottled up in the Arctic. That air is finally being tapped and released. In addition, a blocking area of high pressure is about to setup west of Hudson Bay. That will block storms from the north and force them south. Our blocking area of high pressure is about to get rubbed out and moved south which should open a very adequate moisture tap. What does all that mean? Dumpage for Tahoe and possibly a good healthy amount. Currently all the models are pointing at this taking place around the middle of next week. The following shows how things set up for next Tuesday, January 17:


Notice the blocking ridge west of Hudson Bay. That will force storms down the coast. That arctic air will also invade the midwest as it spills out of the north.

What does all this mean? Right now the models are all over the place on just how much precip for Tahoe. Here is a look at the GFS model for 3 days next week:

January 18
January 20

January 22
The above images are 3 different storms with more on the way.


Total Precipitation
I should not do this, but I am going to anyway. I have taken a 3 week look at what the EC model is thinking in the way of total precipitation. You may notice that the north shore of Tahoe is in the 10+ inch liquid precipitation range. That could amount to 100-150 inches of the white stuff. Here is a look:




Disclaimer:
This is a week out. Things look good right now as the models are in synch. Many of the weather experts are starting to talk about this but they are shell shy.  I will continue to watch this and update every few days. This is the strongest pattern change we have seen all year and it looks like winter may finally show up in the Tahoe area.

Stay Tuned ...

1 comment:

  1. your "forecast" flip-flops around every time the models change, might as well just look at accuweather. Much more vision and accuracy from the other Tahoe weather blog, and he posts more than once every 3 days too. Nice to see some snow finally on the way.

    ReplyDelete