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Monday, February 4, 2013

Changes Coming, but Slowly

After a month of high pressure dominating our weather, there are indications that changes are coming. However, they are taking their time getting here. In my last post I talked about conditions ripening for a more stormy weather pattern around the first or second week of February. I am tracking a decent sized storm that will make it to our area. However, by the time it gets here, it will have weakened and will probably not bring significant snowfall to Tahoe. That storm which is heading toward the Washington/Oregon coast now, will make it's way into our area Friday and Saturday. As it moves inland, it will severely weaken, however. Here is a look at late Friday:



This storm, like the past few will be moisture starved and will probably really kick our winds. It will also usher in a much cooler air mass.

Where others see disappointment, I see opportunity. This storm is going to knock down our stubborn ridge of high pressure. Although the ridge will return by Sunday, it will be positioned slightly different. I believe that means an opportunity exists for a pattern change, albeit slow.

The EC long range model agrees with me ... at least for now. I say that because these models have really been all over the place changing daily. We here at the TWB know you probably do not read the blog for me to tell you what is going to happen tomorrow. Rather I try and will continue to try to forecast what may be coming down the road. As we head into late February, a series of changes should be headed our way. March should come in like a lion. Here is the EC model for total precip between February 20th and March 7th:


Conditions should be good as high pressure and cold air move into the upper midwest and block storms from advancing. That should send storms right down the coast. No need for disclaimer here, this is a long way out and perhaps a snow dance or two could make the difference ... I know, very scientific. I will keep an eye on things and let you know when the big storms are going to return ... and they will return!

Stay Tuned ...

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