We will focus on the more consistent EC model. Below are a series of forecasts for what I would call chances for moderate snow in the Sierra on Tuesday night, Friday and Saturday.
These storms together could bring as much as 1-2 feet of snow to the Sierra and Carson range. They will also bring much cooler temps and much windier conditions. Remember, the EC model is the most aggressive. The GFS, which has been the least reliable model for a couple of years now, is predicting much less precip.
Finally I wanted to show you why a chance exists for these conditions and storms to continue into the first week of March. This is the EC long range forecast. As you can see, it is calling for up to 4 inches of liquid precip between 2/19 and 3/7. That could translate into as much as 5 feet of snow to areas along the west shore of Lake Tahoe.
Again, my confidence in all these events taking place is not very high. However we can do our part. Wash your car, bathe the dog, prepare your garden. This will almost always bring in wet, wintry conditions!
This cooler air may be enough to freeze over little Washoe. I have not received any reports as to current ice, if any. However if the ice did remain, it will definitely thicken up next week and could mean hockey on the weekend of February 23rd. If the ice is all gone, it may be a real stretch to think it could refreeze thick enough to be safe.
Again for more up to date, in the now conditions, go to our friends over at Unofficial Mt. Rose.
Stay Tuned ...