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Tuesday, January 28, 2014

As Storm Moves In, Will This Change Our Long Term Weather Pattern?

A decent sized storm is poised to hit the Tahoe area and should leave behind 18-30 inches of snow for all areas around Tahoe above 8,000 feet. This storm, which is packing abundant moisture, will come in warm on late Wednesday. Snow levels will start out at about 8,000 feet. As the front moves through the snow levels will plunge to the valley floor by Friday morning. The Sierra Crest is forecast to pick up about 2.5 inches of liquid precip. Slightly lesser amounts can be expected for the Carson range. However, if you are a
Mt. Rose skier, the elevation of Rose is such that it will be the big benefactor of this storm with all snow. I would not be surprised to see a couple of feet by Friday afternoon.

The following is the EC total precip map for the event:



We are very pleased to finally get some moisture in the forecast. Does this suggest a change in the long term outlook? Remember, many forecasters had written off 2014 altogether (See Ken Clark at Accuweather.com). Or, does this represent a one time event?

Looking into my Crystal Ball, the next 30 days will see much more moisture than the last 30 days. We are looking at 3-4 of these types of storms in the next 30 days. If things shift just right, we could be in for some very turbulent weather. Here is the 30 day precip forecast:


The 30-day is above normal for precip. Maybe we are about to breakout of the drought ... time will tell.

Stay Tuned ...

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