This is a big wet, warm storm. I think elevations above 8,000 feet will see all snow. Below that will probably be a mixture. Lake level will see most if not all rain. The leeward valleys will also see rain, perhaps as much as a half inch. The further west you go from there, the more rain you will see.
As the storm approaches tomorrow night here is a look at the foreacast:
The first wave will hit Tahoe and south pretty hard. Very beneficial rains will fall through Central and Southern California. Mammoth is going to get slammed.
The second wave comes in Wednesday night and should center its attention on Tahoe:
As the storm moves on shore, it will slow down and I look for pretty heavy precip for the Tahoe area and Carson range for 12-18 hours. Here is a look at the storm totals for liquid precip:
What does this mean for the ski resorts? Because of the warmer storm, I believe Mt. Rose will be the big winner. But look for the crest areas like Sugar bowl to pick up quite a bit of snow on the upper mountain (3+ feet). All Tahoe areas will benefit greatly from this and only the lower elevations, like portions of Squaw Valley, lower Northstar and lower Heavenly will see rain. The shadow effect will be in place but be weak. So I like the Carson range to get its fair share and Mt. Rose could pick up 18-36 inches of wet base making cement to go along with the foot they picked up since last Thursday.
How much terrain will open at Mt. Rose? I strongly suggest you visit the Unofficial Mt. Rose Website for the answer to that as they are on top of this storm and all that is Mt. Rose (Unofficial Mt. Rose).
Here is a look at the 30 day liquid precip totals:
If you believe the fantasy, we are just getting rolling!