When Will The Storms Return?

Ok, I admit it, I did not see this last slider producing so much snow for the Carson Range. Shame on me. In my own defense, they are tough to predict. The snow to water ratio was very high due to the cold, so the 14 inches received at Mt. Rose was a bit misleading. Nonetheless, a very pleasant surprise!

Sliders like this last one present two problems; first they bring in really cold air. I know many of you see that as a benefit, but 8 degrees in Reno is just too cold ... at least for me. Secondly, these are storms that are dropping down from the north, over land, usually packing very little moisture. Our big storms come over sea and pack large amounts of moisture. Sliders such as this usually signify some sort of blocking ridge to our west. As most of you know, this is not good. Especially when we are down for the season in the way of snowfall. The slider aint going to catch us up!

Ok, so as you no doubt have heard, we have a large ridge of high pressure to our west that is blocking anything from coming in. Western Pacific storms are hitting this thing and just dying at sea. Anything that does get by it goes way south or way north and weakens significantly. So when will the storm cycle resume? Sooner than you think!

First lets look at our current conundrum:


High pressure is camped off the Washington/BC coast and is blocking anything from getting in. However, there are two storms to note here. The first storm is located way out at sea and the other is up in the Gulf of Alaska. What I am seeing is that these two storms will join forces, splitting our ridge of high pressure in half. That will happen around the 4th of January:


This will do two things: First it will open a storm door for the Pacific NW. Now the storms can gain strength as they approach land. They can tap into the sub tropical moisture, which has been plentiful this year. Secondly, it will greatly weaken the ridge of high pressure. The stronger storms will gradually work their way south and start another storm cycle for the Tahoe area on or around the 10th of January. The EC 30 day shows a series of storms coming into our area. Here is a look at the forecast for around the 11th or 12th of January:


Fantasy Forecast
Finally, here is a look at the 30 day total precip from the EC. Certainly, the model is picking up a change in our patterns including the beat down of our high pressure system.


What You Get with Tahoe Weather Blog
It has been brought to our attention that some readers would like more frequent and accurate posts. Please remember everybody, this is a medium to long range forecasting site. If you can find another site that is talking about 10 to 30 days out, then I would commend their bravery. Accuracy comes with near term forecasts. Sometimes forecasters are no more accurate than TWB a day out. If this information does not interest you, then please, by all means go to the plethora of other weather sites that are almost 100% accurate telling you what happened yesterday, or what is happening right now!

If we are not blogging, then nothing is happening. Be rest assured if we see a change in the weather pattern and storms are en route, TWB readers will be among the first to know. I hope this explains our pattern for blog posting to any Debbie Downers out there.

Stay tuned ...

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