Major Winter Storm on the Doorstep; Damaging Winds for the Eastern slopes of the Carson Range
Last post we talked about a large storm with great potential. This storm is now knocking on the door and our original forecast timeline is still right on. This storm is born in the north and will slide down the coast, enter Northwestern California, stall, then move straight into Tahoe. With it will come very strong winds that will have an impact on Tahoe and Reno, especially the wind prone areas of the leeward foothills. The NWS has issued a high wind warning, so be prepared these winds will start Wednesday night and will be very powerful, as high as 90mph down the eastern slopes!
The storm will continue to slide south and the heaviest precip will fall in the Central Sierra. Tahoe will pick up quite a bit of precip, but just south from Kirkwood to Mammoth will see the most preicp. Here is a look at the forecast for around noon on Thursday:
There is a very large moisture plume to the south that this storm is going to tap into and it will bring very beneficial rains to most of California. Here is a look at the forecast for noon on Friday:
Even in these weak El Nino conditions we are seeing storms making it much further south where they really need it. Here is a look at the precip totals for this storm, through Saturday:
Snow levels will start at about 7,500 feet. As the cold front moves through, those levels will drop to around 5,000 feet. There will be some spill over into the eastern valleys, mostly in the form of rain.
I believe Mt. Rose will pick up an additional 18-36 inches of snow, depending on just how fast the storm moves through. Also, the water content of the snow will be very high, bringing down snowfall totals. The Sierra Crest could get as much as 4 feet of snow just south of Tahoe in the very highest elevations.
The good news is that I am tracking a couple of more storms that have some potential for our area. The big one in particular could show up in about 10 days.
Looking at the 30 day, the EC model has us drying out with a sustained dry period between December 22nd through the first week in January. Remember this is a fantasy forecast only so don't get too depressed, this can and most likely will change. Here is the forecast for total precip through the first week of January:
Stay Tuned ...