The timing of our forecast was a little off, but we still expect a major precip event. Expect very strong winds ahead of this system. Here is the forecast for early Thursday morning, notice how the moisture is tracking north of us:
Here is the forecast for Thursday afternoon:
Finally, here is the forecast for late Thursday night through Friday afternoon:
This event will not have nearly the duration that we had hoped for, so we are lowering our precip totals. Here is the total precip forecast:
We are still looking at 2-3 feet of snow for Mt. Rose. We believe this event will be all snow above 7,500 feet and snow levels will move down as the storm moves its way through.
By Friday night, much colder air will follow the storm as high pressure sets in off the coast.
Looking way ahead, I am not seeing any major storms for next week as high pressure dominates. There is a slight chance for an inside slider to come down and hit the Carson Range on Sunday afternoon.
We have seen how unpredictable weather is more than a few days out, so keep your fingers crossed that this pattern can continue.
By Paul Huntington
Here is what I'm seeing long term till around Christmas-
First off I hope everyone has time to enjoy this weekends (12/17-12/18) fresh dump and the weather looks nice and cool (20's and low 30's) both days. Please remember about avalanche danger and always remember to stay out of "closed areas" and obviously have a friend with you if exploring tree riding or cornice drops!!
Long Term 12/17-12/25
After a rather active stormy pattern early to mid December the jet stream is beginning to make a northward shift from deep troughing along the West Coast to more of a "dirty ridge". The casual affects on our air mass in California will be to a shift from a warmer southerly tropical jet that supported higher snow levels to a more cooler north west angle supported by the Aleutian low allowing short waves to rotate down from Alaska with a much lower snow level. This pattern will bring cold air and inside slider type systems into Christmas. The first of these slider type systems is looking to arrive Sunday (12/18) late afternoon probably right around when resorts are closing and should bring a nice 3-6 inches of fluffy dry snow. NOT Sierra Cement!! After that Monday looks on the dry cold windy side as the "inside slider" moves through but another storm is on its heels and moves over the omega block off Central California bringing in another shot of snow on Tuesday into Thursday (12/20-12/22) and looks like it is more of a "hybrid inside slider" which means it has a more westward track and should allow the low to pick up more moisture than the previous storm on Sunday night. These storms will be showery in nature and nothing big but will help add a nice layer of powder on the building base.
Looking further out to late next week around Christmas break (12/23-12/25)- i am not seeing any storms that look too impressive and it appears the North Pacific is reloading in a sense which is very typical this time of year around Christmas and the New Year. Nevertheless, if you look at the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation below they are matching up quite closely showing them going negative toward the end of the month and this signifies big changes almost always. How these teleconnections impact the jet stream is going to be very interesting as the La Nina and the sub tropical jet stream-very active this year- interact. I want to say fantasy forecast wise get ready for an active start to January.
Stay Tuned ...