Goodbye 60's, Hello Snow

 If you have been following this blog, we have been tracking a weather pattern change for quite some time now. The models are converging and it looks like 4 separate storms are poised to hit Tahoe. Not any one of these storms is gigantic, but the sum of these storms should open a ton of terrain in the Tahoe area.

The first storm is one we elected to ignore and it has overachieved. It will add 2-4 inches to Mt. Rose which is a welcome sight. 

More importantly it will clear the way for the slider system that comes in Thursday night. This system is going to be accompanied by some very cold air. We will drop 30 degrees and mountain highs on Friday will be in the teens. In addition, expect 2-6 inches of snow for the leeward valleys and perhaps 6-8 inches of snow for Mt. Rose.

Notice the ridge getting shoved west. That opens a real storm door and a week from today (Monday Dec. 13) we will see decent storm with low snow levels come into Tahoe.

GFS is much more bullish but both it and the EC model are converging on this storm. Then, the 4th storm in our series comes. This again is another colder storm and snow levels will be well below lake level. This storm comes in late on the 15th of December.

As these storms form they should be able to tap into some sub-tropical moisture. I am going to publish the precip forecast for the next 2 weeks as seen by the GFS model which is the more bullish of the two models we mostly look at:

We are looking at 6-10 inches of liquid precip for Slide Mountain and perhaps 2-4 inches of liquid for the leeward valleys. The Northern Sierra at the crest could see as much as 16 inches of liquid precip in the next 2 weeks.

Yes, things are about to change. You just knew that Ma Nature would be back to her old tricks again, unusually extended dry weather followed by a series of storms. That's how it works.

Stay Tuned ...