Biggest Storm Since 2017 is Knocking at the Door

As the weather models converge, we are looking at a major weather event. Three storms will eventually have a party right over the Tahoe area. They will bring hurricane force winds and heavy precipitation. The party starts tomorrow night (Thursday 1/30).

First, let's take a look at the GFS weather model's precipitation forecast for the next 9 days:

If you zoom in on that image, you will see some brown specs around the Western Sierra Crest. That represents somewhere between 25 and 35 inches of liquid precipitation. Above 8,000 feet, on the Crest, over the next week or so, the Sierra could see 30 feet of snow. 

You can see there is major spillover too. The Carson Range will see between 10 and 20 feet of snow. The Mt. Rose Chutes could be open (if the storms let up a little) by this time next week.

Here is some timing. The major stuff starts on Friday afternoon. Read our previous post about snow levels. We are looking at near constant precipitation through the following Tuesday (2/4).

Here is where the models separate, but only temporarily. The GFS (which pegged this over a week ago), has this storm literally stalling right over Tahoe for nearly 5 full days. This storm has a huge moisture tap and is being fed by a subtropical system. 

Then the northern storm is going to push south. According to the GFS it will keep the precip over Tahoe and lower snow levels to around Lake level. The EC has a temporary break around Monday.

This is the La Nina storm we have been waiting for. Sometime around Wednesday evening (2/5), the storms, that are still stalled out, regain some of that strength and we should see another heavy wave of precipitaiton:

Because of the advancement of the northern storm, we now believe this event will be all snow for Mt. Rose. If snow levels rise above 8,000, it will be for a short time only.

Be prepared. You may want to avoid Sierra passes from Mammoth on north for the next week. Before going out in the backcountry, please click the Sierra Avalanche link to the left of this article.

Stay Tuned ...