Tahoe Weather Blog

The next storm is knocking on the door. This is a larger, warmer storm that will bring rain to the valley. It will also bring heavy snow to the Sierra, especially along the crest. Current forecasts show 2-4 inches of liquid precip. That will translate to around 2-5 feet of snow, depending on when the cold air arrives. Although Slide Mountain routinely does not get the full brunt of the storm, it should be in the track and 18-36 inches looks like a sure bet. All this by late tomorrow night. NWS is saying the winds will not be as strong either, that could keep the lifts spinning at the resorts around Tahoe all day tomorrow. Here is what EC is forecasting for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Notice that all of Tahoe is right in the bulls eye: Now take a look at GFS for this evening as the storm approaches: The one downside that I am seeing is this storm is bringing in some seriously warm air. It looks like snow levels could rise to 8,000 feet  as the warm air is sucked in fr

Last Night Last nights storm came in pretty much as predicted and moved the snow total on Slide Mountain to 407 inches and counting. The party is over for now, but starts up again tomorrow afternoon. If this thing comes in just right we can look for 18-36 inches of additional accumulation in the upper elevations of the Sierra and Carson Range by Wednesday night. As I said yesterday, this is a warmer system and will probably be mostly rain below 7,500 feet. Of course the base at Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe is over 8,000 feet and therefore this should be all snow. NWS is calling for rising water levels on creeks and streams but does not fear any wide spread flooding as of now. This Week The models are now somewhat in agreement that there will be nearly non-stop mountain snow, which will at times be heavy starting tomorrow night and lasting into the foreseeable future. A series of storms are stacked up and will move on shore just north of California. However the long wave affect of these sto

Slide Mountain has had just shy of 400 inches of snow this year. I believe there is a significant chance that they could top 500 within the next couple of weeks. A series of strong to moderate storms is approaching the area which will bring winter back for what could be two weeks, or longer. Let's start with the 3 storms coming this week: Tonight through Tomorrow: This is the weakest of the storms but should still pack a pretty decent punch as there is plenty of associated moisture. Expect 1-2 feet at the higher elevations and 3-6 inches at lake level. Here is the GFS look for early tomorrow morning. This will not affect the leeward valleys with anything but very strong winds:   Tuesday Night Through Wednesday This is a much stronger storm and has been well advertised. The models are in a agreement with this storm and it should bring significant snow above 7,500 feet in the  Sierra around Tahoe. This storm starts out warm and the NWS service is worried about heavy rain fall

A series of storms will move north of the area but will affect our weather and dump snow in the mountains. Right now the EC weather model has 3 separate storms coming in for next week starting on Monday and lasting at least through next Sunday with very few breaks. Each of these storms moves progressively further south and EC is forecast the following for next weekend:   This is a pretty big storm for mid-March and it is tracking south, right through central California. EC is the most aggressive of the weather models for this forecast but all models are pointing toward a very stormy week. GFS has the party starting late Sunday night and shows mountain snow for the next 5 days with virtually no break. Our ridge to the south has not moved further south, but broken down completely and is reforming to our north which oftentimes means these types of stormy periods. La Nina generally means an early spring. Somebody forgot to tell that to God! Spring will come in like a lion. This patt

Here is our current condition: Blocking High Pressure has set up to our south and west. This causes the storms to track north of Tahoe. Currently the models have that blocking high moving slightly south, which puts us right on the edge of the storm track. If it moves a little further south than expected, we can expect another storm cycle to start up next week. If it remains or moves only slightly south, we can expect just glancing blows that bring us wind but very little if any precip, which is that typical Sierra spring pattern I talked about last post. Mountain Snows Next Week Both GFS and EC have a series of storms that will move north of us, but not too far north where we only get the glancing blow.  Here is a look at next Monday's forecast by the GFS weather model. Notice the storm is to the north, but the moisture is able to penetrate the outer rings of the high pressure system: This makes forecasting weather very inaccurate at best. Suffice it to say, however, stor

The last storm in the cycle has now moved through the area dropping close to a foot of snow on Slide Mountain and leaving slightly more west of the crest. This is exactly what we expected as the models nailed another one. As the backside of this storm drops down the cold front, winds will continue, however by Tuesday afternoon a ridge of high pressure will move into the area bringing sunny skies and much warmer temps. Expect 60's by Wednesday. Looking forward, there will be a series of glancing blows of systems that are being pushed to our north. Those glancing blows will bring wind and little if any precip. Most will drop the temps 5-10 degrees and bring windy conditions for a short period of time before they recover ahead of the next system. This is typical of spring in the Sierra. Most valley snow is already gone and the foothills will continue their melt through the weekend. That means expect golf courses to start opening up again, which of course means ski in the morning, go

Sunday/Monday Storm Not much has changed since yesterday's post for the storm coming Sunday and Monday. Both EC and GFS have this thing coming in Sunday afternoon and lasting through Monday, with the bulk of the precip very early Monday morning. Both models have downgraded the amount of precip associated with this storm to around .5 to 1 inch of liquid precip for Slide Mountain and double that for west of the Sierra Crest. The NAM model is talking about 1 inch for the Carson range which is the most optimistic of the forecasts. Therefore, unless something changes drastically, expect 3-12 inches of snow at Slide Mountain by Monday morning. Here is the NAM precip forecast through Monday:   As you can see, most of the action is on or west of the Crest. Next Weeks Forecast I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it does look like this storm cycle is winding down. High Pressure is moving in to our west and south. These ridges can be stubborn and difficult to move. When they cam