The next storm is knocking on the door. This is a larger, warmer storm that will bring rain to the valley. It will also bring heavy snow to the Sierra, especially along the crest. Current forecasts show 2-4 inches of liquid precip. That will translate to around 2-5 feet of snow, depending on when the cold air arrives. Although Slide Mountain routinely does not get the full brunt of the storm, it should be in the track and 18-36 inches looks like a sure bet. All this by late tomorrow night. NWS is saying the winds will not be as strong either, that could keep the lifts spinning at the resorts around Tahoe all day tomorrow. Here is what EC is forecasting for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Notice that all of Tahoe is right in the bulls eye:
Now take a look at GFS for this evening as the storm approaches:
The one downside that I am seeing is this storm is bringing in some seriously warm air. It looks like snow levels could rise to 8,000 feet as the warm air is sucked in from the southwest. Keep your fingers crossed that this storm is all snow for Rose.
Looking Ahead - Round Three
Both the GFS and EC models agree that we will have another decent storm. They just can't agree when. EC believes that the next storm is coming on Saturday and GFS believes it will be Friday. This is the same storm and from what I can see, this thing should arrive sometime and Friday and exit early Saturday morning. Here is the GFS forecast for Friday morning as the storm approaches:
After this storm, both weather models that I rely on, have the high pressure system moving further south which should usher in more storms ... perhaps bigger storms. Right now we are looking at Monday and Thursday of next week.
For those readers who live in the Central Sierra around Mammoth, these storms are taking dead aim at you. They should still hit Tahoe pretty hard, as well.
I will fine tune round 3 and the weekends storm forecasts tomorrow.
Stay Tuned ...