Last nights storm came in pretty much as predicted and moved the snow total on Slide Mountain to 407 inches and counting. The party is over for now, but starts up again tomorrow afternoon. If this thing comes in just right we can look for 18-36 inches of additional accumulation in the upper elevations of the Sierra and Carson Range by Wednesday night. As I said yesterday, this is a warmer system and will probably be mostly rain below 7,500 feet. Of course the base at Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe is over 8,000 feet and therefore this should be all snow. NWS is calling for rising water levels on creeks and streams but does not fear any wide spread flooding as of now.
The models are now somewhat in agreement that there will be nearly non-stop mountain snow, which will at times be heavy starting tomorrow night and lasting into the foreseeable future. A series of storms are stacked up and will move on shore just north of California. However the long wave affect of these storms will bring nearly continuous snow to the Sierra. The heavier snow looks like Tuesday, Wednesday AM, Thursday night, Friday AM, Saturday night, etc, etc. Next week could be stormier than this week. I am feeling more confident that Slide Mountain will break the 500 inch mark by the end of next week.
In the meantime, conditions in the Sierra are near perfect with reasonable temps (cold enough to keep the snow good, but warm enough to keep you warm). If you like POW we have plenty of that. If you like groomed conditions on soft snow, we have that too. We also have everything in between. All the resorts around Tahoe are reporting these conditions and there is no reason to believe they won't last for weeks to come. Currently the best skiing conditions in the world are right here in Lake Tahoe!
This from the Sierra Avalanche Center (Click For Sierra Avalanche Center):
Near and above treeline avalanche danger is MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE danger on NE-E-SE-S aspects, on slopes 35 degrees and steeper. Below treeline, avalanche danger is MODERATE on all aspects on slopes 35 degrees and steeper.
Tomorrow I will fine tune the forecasts for the remainder of the week and next weekend.
Stay Tuned ...